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The Sacramento Kings will take on Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks in a 5PM ET tip on Saturday. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our NBA odds series, which includes our Kings-Mavericks prediction, odds, and pick we have laid out below.
The Kings defeated the San Antonio Spurs in their most recent outing, 115-112. Harrison Barnes led the way with 27 points, while De'Aaron Fox added 26 points and nine assists. Sacramento has won two of its last three games. The Kings (24-41) are headed to yet another losing campaign and will miss the postseason for the 16th straight season. At 13th in the West, they are still four games behind the no. 10 seed with just 17 games remaining on their schedule.
Meanwhile, Dallas is coming off a 122-113 victory over the Golden State Warriors on Thursday. Luka Doncic put on a masterful 41 points to go along with 10 rebounds and nine assists, while Spencer Dinwiddie continued his strong play for the Mavs off the bench with 17 points and seven assists. The Mavericks have won three in a row and five of its last six games. Dallas still trails the no. 4 seed Utah Jazz by 1.5 games in the West standings.
Here is how FanDuel has set the Kings–Mavericks NBA odds for this Saturday's NBA matchup.
NBA odds: Kings–Mavericks Odds
Sacramento Kings: +7.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks: -7.5 (-110)
Over: 225 (-110)
Under: 225 (-110)
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Why the Kings could cover the spread
The Kings have talented players. Domantas Sabonis can put up beefy numbers on a nightly basis. Since debuting with Sacramento, the 2-time All-Star is averaging 17.4 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 6.0 assists. De'Aaron Fox is also capable of putting a team on his back, just as he did against the Spurs. On the season, Fox is averaging 22.1 points and 5.3 assists. Harrison Barnes is also no slouch and has established himself as one of the most well-rounded veteran forwards in the NBA.
Their against the spread record is at 30-35, which is better than their actual win-loss record. If you catch them on a good night, they could certainly pull off a surprise victory and win you some money.
As mentioned, Sacramento is capable of having big scoring nights with their offensive firepower. Since the All-Star break, they've been averaging 112.2 points while Dallas is at 111.8 points. It's easy to see why the over/under is at 223. But in their three encounters so far this season, the Kings and Mavs have yet to surpass that combined score.
In fact, Sacramento has yet to eclipse the century mark in its season series with Dallas. The Kings lost the first meeting, 105-99. They took the next game, 95-94, on December 29 after Chimezie Metu drilled a crazy buzzer-beating three. Dallas won two nights later, 112-96. Mavericks star Luka Doncic didn't play in the two December games and is listed as questionable ahead of Saturday's contest.
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Other things to note: the Kings have an abysmal road record at 9-23, but are relatively better against West teams at 17-25. As for injuries, only Terrence Davis (wrist) is listed as out so far. Richaun Holmes (back soreness) hasn't played in five games but has been listed as questionable for Saturday.
Why the Mavericks could cover the spread
The Mavericks' offense hasn't been the same this season compared to the last couple of years. They rank just 25th in points per game (107.0) this season and are just 14th in offensive rating. But since the All-Star break, the Mavericks have climbed to 7th in offensive rating.
With a 36-26 ATS record, the Mavericks have won more games on the defensive end than they have offensively. They boast the 5th best defensive rating in the NBA this 2021-22 and since the break, they've held opponents to 108.0 points (4th in the league).
Aside from Luka Doncic, who is questionable due to a sprained toe, the Mavs have also listed Maxi Kleber (ankle), Marquese Chriss (knee), and Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) as out. Trey Burke is also questionable with a left shoulder sprain. The injuries could make this game much closer than expected as they will also miss one of their top defenders in Kleber.
If Doncic isn't available, the Mavericks might have a tough time generating offense. They've gone 6-9 without their superstar guard this season.
Newcomer Spencer Dinwiddie will likely take on primary scoring duties, while Jalen Brunson could step up once again in case Doncic sits out. Dinwiddie has thrived since arriving in Dallas at the trade deadline. As a Maverick, the 28-year old is averaging 14.5 points while shooting a scorching 58.6 percent from the field and 45.5 percent from three in six games off the bench. Meanwhile, per Statmuse, Brunson has upped his averages to 19.7 points and 7.9 assists in 15 games without Doncic this season.
Dallas can also take advantage of home court, where they are 21-11. They are also 27-15 against West teams this season.
Final Kings–Mavericks Prediction & Pick
Dallas' 36-26 ATS record makes them the more appealing better here despite the injuries. But do continue keeping an eye on Doncic's status as that will likely carry a huge weight on your betting decisions. If Doncic suits up, go with Dallas with confidence. If not, still roll with the Mavericks as Spencer Dinwiddie has been on fire and has shown his capability of going off with a bigger offensive load.
Final Kings–Mavericks Prediction & Pick: Mavericks: -7.5 (-110)
