We're back to conclude our prediction and pick series for Friday's slate as we head to the Western Conference for the conclusion of this season rivalry. The Minnesota Timberwolves (40-26) will take on the Golden State Warriors (32-33) as Minnesota leads 2-1. Check our NBA odds series for the Timberwolves-Warriors prediction and pick.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are sixth in the Western Conference standings following their latest 153-128 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. They've now dropped three-straight and have considerably slipped in the standings, so expect Minnesota to try and lock-in to finish their current road trip.
The Golden State Warriors are currently ninth in the Western standings following a 130-124 defeat at the hands of the Chicago Bulls. They're also riding a three-game losing streak and have gone a lackluster 3-7 over their last 10 games, hoping to turn things around with a home win.
NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Odds
Minnesota Timberwolves: -5.5 (-110)
Golden State Warriors: +5.5 (-110)
Over: 227.5 (-112)
Under: 227.5 (-108)
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Key Injuries
Minnesota: Ayo Dosunmu (thumb – Questionable)
Golden State: De'Anthony Melton (abductor – Questionable) / Quinten Post (foot – Questionable) / Jimmy Butler (knee – OUT) / Stephen Curry (knee – OUT) / Moses Moody (wrist – OUT)
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Betting Trends
- The Golden State Warriors have gone 19-14 at home. The Minnesota Timberwolves are 18-14 on the road.
- The Timberwolves are 35-17 as the betting favorites. The Warriors have gone 8-14 as underdogs.
- The Warriors are 29-36 ATS overall, 15-18 ATS at home. The Timberwolves are 27-39 ATS overall, 13-19 ATS on the road.
- The Timberwolves are 2-1 outright, 2-1 ATS against the Warriors this season.
- The Timberwolves are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The Warriors are 4-9 ATS over their last 13 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of Minnesota's last seven games.
- The total has gone OVER in nine of the Warriors' last 12 games.
Keys to Timberwolves vs. Warriors Matchup
Minnesota and Golden State will conclude their season series on Friday with the Timberwolves winning the most recent meeting 108-83 at Minnesota. The two teams played a back-to-back where Golden State took the first leg 111-85, so this series hasn't been particularly competitive since Minnesota won their first game 127-120 in Golden State. Both teams are streaking in the wrong direction and while the Timberwolves are still comfortable in playoff position, the Warriors certainly need to add some crucial wins now that they've slipped below a .500 record for the first time since they were 13-15 in mid-December 2025.
The Warriors' obvious issue has been Stephen Curry out of the lineup as they've gone a regrettable 9-17 without him in the lineup. As of March 11, Curry was expected to miss at least 10 more days and could very well miss the rest of March if the training staff errs on the side of caution. They'll undoubtedly need him for a playoff push, however, as it doesn't seem like they'll make it very far without him this season.
The Timberwolves will need to snap out of their own three-game losing streak as it's caused them to slip in the Western standings from No. 3 just last week to now sitting in the six-spot. They allowed 153 points to the Clippers during their last game, the most they've allowed in a game all season. Despite all of this, Anthony Edwards has been playing some of his most explosive basketball on the offensive end, averaging 30.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 3.5 APG over his last 10 games. Rudy Gobert has also been a monster in the paint, routinely grabbing 10+ rebounds in most of his efforts in addition to the physical play from Julius Randle and Naz Reid.
However, the Timberwolves' defense certainly isn't where it needs to be at the moment and the Warriors can make this a game if they're able to find a scoring rhythm early. Behind Brandin Podziemski moving the ball and Draymond Green disrupting things in the paint, look for players like Quinten Post and Kristaps Porzingis to make a difference down low and making things difficult for Minnesota's front court.
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick
While the Timberwolves have dominated this series for the most part, both teams have been on the downswing coming in and would greatly benefit from a win here. The Warriors haven't been able to do much without Curry and given the added injuries to Moses Moody and De'Anthony Melton not being 100%, it will certainly be tough for them to turn things around at home against an angry Timberwolves' squad.
Chris Finch has had to emphasize defense ahead of this game following Minnesota's abysmal performance on that side of the ball against the Clippers, so I expect a much more disciplined showing out of them knowing they can handle this Warriors' lineup just about everywhere else. For our final pick, we'll take the Minnesota Timberwolves to cover on the road as they grab a much-needed win that results in a mini-winning streak in their coming games.
Final Timberwolves-Warriors Prediction & Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 (-110); UNDER 227.5 (-108)
