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For the first time in the 2021 playoffs, the Los Angeles Lakers will get to play on their home floor against the Phoenix Suns. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Suns-Lakers prediction and pick.
The series is currently tied at one game apiece, with the Lakers winning the most recent matchup by a score of 109-102 to steal home court from the Suns. Phoenix pulled out a close Game 1 victory in the first game of the series behind excellent games from Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Suns-Lakers NBA odds for Game 3.
NBA Playoff Odds: Suns vs. Lakers Odds
Phoenix Suns +6.5 (-112)
Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 (-108)
Over 212 Points (-110)
Under 212 Points (-110)
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
The Suns' biggest question going into this game is the status of Chris Paul.
The star point guard has been laboring through a shoulder injury for nearly the entire series after sustaining a stinging hit in Game 1. Paul is listed as probable on the injury report and will most definitely play.
Even though Paul is definitely not at 100%, just his presence on the floor is important to the Suns. Phoenix badly needs his leadership presence in a hugely important Game 3.
A great sign for the Suns was the quality of their guard play while Paul was forced to sit in Game 2.
Cameron Payne was outstanding in a reserve role, playing 33 minutes off the bench and scoring 19 points. Payne was the key to sparking a Suns run that made the game close in the final minutes.
Other big keys for the Suns are Devin Booker's effectiveness on the offensive end and Deandre Ayton's effectiveness on the defensive end.
Booker shot 7-17 from the field in Game 2, but he ended up with 31 points thanks to his 17 free throws (though a bunch were in garbage time). With Paul hurting, the Suns are limited offensively. They need Book to have a star performance to keep up with LeBron James and Anthony Davis' firepower.
Ayton has been amazing on the offensive end in this series (21.5 points on 87.5% shooting), but his biggest contribution comes on defense.
The Suns' best interior defender was in early foul foul trouble in Game 2, allowing Davis to find a groove picking on smaller players like Dario Saric and Cam Johnson.
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Ayton needs to stay on the floor and replicate his Game 1 dominance of Davis, where he held The Brow to only 5-16 shooting.
A combination of the two young Phoenix players taking care of their roles on their respective ends will make this another game that comes down to the wire.
Why The Lakers Could Cover The Spread
After a lackadaisical start to the series, the Lakers came ready to play in Game 2. Aside for the first four minutes in the first and a fourth-quarter scare, Los Angeles seemed in control for most of the matchup.
The Lakers are at a huge advantage with Paul playing like a shadow of himself. CP3 is a warrior and toughing it out on the court, but the stats and eye test make it very clear he is not even close to healthy.
Through two games, Paul is averaging only 6.5 points and 6.5 assists in just under 30 minutes of playing time. It's clear that his shoulder is bothering his jumper: The Point God is shooting just 38.5% from the field and 50% from the free-throw line. He has only attempted one 3-pointer.
This is a matchup of two great defensive teams. To break these defenses, it takes star power, and Los Angeles holds a massive upper hand with Paul hurt.
L.A. has done an excellent job at slowing the Suns on the perimeter, holding them to only 31.4% shooting from deep in the series. While the Lakers haven't been much better themselves, Phoenix is a bit more reliant on the deep shot, getting 33.9% of their points from beyond the arc as opposed to 30.2% for the Lakers.
In what should be a low-scoring matchup, the Lakers don't need a boatload of points to get a win here. As long as Davis and LeBron play moderately well, (which is a great bet), it will be a 2-1 lead for L.A.
Final Suns-Lakers Prediction & Pick
The Suns' line started off at 2.5 points until Lakers bettors flooded the books. So much money came in on L.A. that the line has moved to a whopping 6.5. Realistically, the fairest line would probably be somewhere in the middle. While I think the Lakers win this game, I like the Suns to make it competitive. No matter how banged up CP3 is, he's going to play and give his team an emotional boost. I'll happily take the inflated spread even though the Lakers should really win this game.
FINAL SUNS-LAKERS SCORE PREDICTION & PICK: LAL 109, PHX 105 (PHOENIX SUNS +6.5)
