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The Utah Jazz will take on the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 4 of a highly entertaining first-round playoff series on Monday night. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Jazz-Grizzlies prediction and pick.
In Game 3, the Jazz withstood a few Grizzlies runs to take a 2-1 series lead and regain home-court advantage. This game will decide whether Memphis returns to Utah with the series tied or face a nearly insurmountable deficit.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Jazz-Grizzlies odds.
NBA Odds: Jazz-Grizzlies Odds
Utah Jazz -5.5 (-115)
Memphis Grizzlies +5.5 (-105)
Over 225Points (-110)
Under 225 Points (-110)
Why The Jazz Could Cover The Spread
Utah has looked like a different team with Donovan Mitchell back and healthy.
After missing Game 1, Mitchell has helped the Jazz take back control of the series with two straight wins thanks to two solid performances.
Spida is averaging 27.0 points on 40.5% shooting, giving the Jazz a much-needed isolation scorer and unlocking the Rudy Gobert pick-and-roll to it's ultimate potential. Overall, the Jazz are a plus-17 in minutes that Mitchell has been on the floor.
The Utah offense should continue to click in Game 4. The Jazz are averaging the second-highest points per game among postseason teams, with the fourth-best field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.
The Grizzlies simply do not have the scoring punch to keep up with this Jazz team. Memphis has the lowest 3-point percentage of any postseason team and depend on paint scoring to do their damage. The problem with that comes in the form of 7-foot-1 Rudy Gobert.
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The two-time DPOY has been a wall at the rim, averaging just over three blocks a game and making Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas work for their paint points.
As long as the Jazz don't go ice cold from beyond the arc, their defense should keep them in this game. It's very unlikely that Memphis ever goes on a run that gives them such a large lead that the Jazz are out of it at any point until the last moments.
Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread
Memphis has made this a much tighter series than most pundits expected it to be.
After winning the first game, the Grizz have relied upon an efficient, grind-it-out offense to keep the next two matchups close.
Ja Morant and company are lagging just behind the Jazz in points scored per game, coming in fifth among postseason contenders at 117.3. The reigning Rookie of the Year has led the charge with some insane numbers.
Morant is averaging 33.7 points on 51.4% shooting and getting 10.7 free-throw attempts per contest. His aggressive drives have forced the Jazz into early foul trouble, and Memphis is taking advantage at the line.
The Grizzlies are averaging the fourth-most free throws per contest among playoff teams thanks to Morant's work. The problem has been converting them.
Memphis is shooting about two percentage points below its regular-season average at the line, costing them precious points. If the number reverts back to normal, the Grizzlies should get two or three more points that are hugely important in this series.
Defensively, the Grizz need to do a better job of controlling the 3-point line. The Jazz are currently shooting 38.8% from beyond the arc, two percentage points higher than what the Grizzlies held their opponents to in the regular season.
The Jazz almost completely rely on the 3-pointer. They scored 43% of their points from beyond the arc in the regular season, the highest percentage in the league.
The Grizzlies are capable of guarding the 3 better, and a raucous and desperate home crowd should help their defense. If Memphis can limit the 3-point shot, they have a great chance of pulling an upset here.
Final Jazz-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick
Overall, the disparity in talent between these two teams is clear. The Jazz have been able to withstand every Grizzlies run with Mitchell back, and I don't believe that changes in Game 4. Memphis would have to play a nearly perfect game to even this series, and it's doubtful they get all their pieces to click. There's a reason why the Jazz were the top seed in the West, and they showed it in Game 3 by holding off a desperate Memphis squad. Give me Utah to cover and finish one game away from advancing.
FINAL PICK/PREDICTION: UTA 114, MEM 106 (JAZZ -5.5)
