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These teams need wins, mainly because North Carolina is clinging to NCAA Tournament hopes. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an NC State-North Carolina prediction and pick.
NC State is 10-15 entering this game, and they have just broken a nine-game losing streak. Their only notable win has come against Florida State. Then, they lost to Purdue, BYU, Texas, Kansas, Wake Forest, North Carolina, SMU, Duke, and Louisville. Marcus Hill is the best player the Wolfpack has to offer, and they need him to have a giant game against the Tar Heels if they have any chance.
North Carolina is 15-11 this season, thanks to quality wins against Dayton, UCLA, SMU, and Pitt. However, the losses have started to pile up, with significant ones coming to Kansas, Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama, Florida, Louisville, Duke, and Clemson. The Tar Heels must make a big statement to stay off the bubble. The best player in this game is RJ Davis, and he can have a giant game.
Here are the NC State-North Carolina College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: NC State-North Carolina Odds
NC State: +10.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +480
North Carolina: -10.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -690
Over: 146.5 (-110)
Under: 146.5 (-110)
How to Watch NC State vs. North Carolina
Time: 7:00 pm ET/4:00 pm PT
TV: ESPN
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why NC State Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Wolfpack's defense has played exceptionally well despite their offensive issues. They allow 68.7 points per game, 44.6% from the field, and 33.8% from behind the arc. This a top-100 defense on KenPom, with a 103.9 rating in adjusted defense.
Down low, this frontcourt has struggled at times this season. Brandon Huntley-Hatfield is the rebounding leader, averaging five per game. Then, Ben Middlebrooks is the block leader with 1.6 per game.
Their perimeter defense has been solid this season, with Jayden Taylor leading the team in steals with 1.6 per game. The Wolfpack's defense is the entire reason they stayed in this game. This feels like an avalanche might be coming because the Tar Heels need a big win.
North Carolina's defense has been a disaster this season. They allow 76.8 points per game, 43.1% from the field, and 34.2% from behind the arc. They are only 63rd in KenPom in adjusted defense with a 101.1 rating.
The Tar Heels' frontcourt has struggled to find success this season. Seth Trimble is the rebounding leader in the backcourt, averaging 5.5 per game. He is also the best perimeter defender, leading the team in steals, averaging 1.5 per game.
Jalen Washington is the leader in blocks, averaging 1.1 per game. This frontcourt has struggled to succeed overall and could be a giant weakness in this game. The Tar Heels should at least be able to slow down this Wolfpack offense, especially at home, but it is a difficult matchup overall.
Why North Carolina Will Cover The Spread/Win
NC State's offense has been one of the worst in the ACC, only ahead of Virginia. They score 69.5 points per game, have a 42.9% field goal percentage, and a 31.5% three-point shooting percentage. They are 157th in offensive efficiency in KenPom, with a 108.6 rating.
Only two Wolfpack players are averaging over double digits in scoring, with Hill being the best scorer on the team, averaging 12.6 points per game. This offense is also struggling to find much help. Michael O'Connell is the assist leader at 3.2 per game, but they only average 12.4 assists per game as a team. The Wolfpack have the talent to be better than they are on offense, but things have been a struggle.
This is an intriguing matchup because NC State has had many issues on offense, but North Carolina's struggles have been on defense. NC State might be able to find some success in this game, even on the road.
North Carolina has one of the top three offenses in the ACC. They score 80.3 points per game, have a 47% field goal percentage, and have a 33% three-point percentage. KenPom also ranks this offense at 43 in adjusted offense, with a 117.1 rating.
Four different Tar Heels are averaging over double digits on this very balanced offense. Davis is the most consistent scorer on this team, averaging 17.3 points per game. They have been okay at best with ball movement as a team, averaging 14.3 assists per game. Elliot Cadeau is the assist leader, averaging six per game.
The Tar Heels have the offense to score on almost anyone, and they should find success against the Wolfpack, especially with the game at home in Chapel Hill.
Final NC State-North Carolina Prediction & Pick
NC State has a great defense, but with their offensive issues, the Tar Heels should be able to outscore and keep the tempo fast, which makes things difficult for them. North Carolina should start an avalanche of scoring that NC State can't keep up with. North Carolina wins and covers in this game at home.
Final NC State-North Carolina Prediction & Pick: North Carolina -10.5 (-120)
