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The New Orleans Saints (2-4) take on the Arizona Cardinals (2-4) in this week's Thursday Night Football Showdown. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Saints-Cardinals prediction and pick.
New Orleans is 2-4 heading into week seven. After winning the season opener over the Falcons, the Saints dropped four of the next five games. They squeaked out a win over the Seahawks in week five, but lost games to the Buccaneers, Panthers, Vikings, and, most recently, the Bengals. New Orleans is third in the NFC South (1-2 in division play). The Saints are 2-4 ATS this season. Four of their six games gave gone over.
Arizona is also 2-4 heading into this week. The Cardinals started the season 2-2, winning games over the Raiders and Panthers and losing to the Chiefs and Rams. They've since lost two straight games to the Eagles and Seahawks. Arizona is last in the NFC West (0-2 in division play). The Cardinals are 3-3 ATS this season. Four of their six games have gone under.
Here are the Saints-Cardinals NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Saints-Cardinals Odds
New Orleans Saints: +2.5 (-105)
Arizona Cardinals: -2.5 (-115)
Over: 43.5 (-110)
Under: 43.5 (-110)
Why The Saints Could Cover The Spread
These aren't your grandparents' Saints.
On the contrary, New Orleans has yet to find their footing under head coach Dennis Allen. However the team has been plagued by injury and there are some signs they could turn things around this week. The Saints have been able to move the ball fairly well despite the constant shuffling of their skill position players. New Orleans is 11th in points per game and fifth in yards per game. They've been particularly effective on the ground.
New Orleans ranks third in yards per rush and seventh in rushing yards per game. This is despite star rusher Alvin Kamara missing two games with an injury. Now that Kamara is healthy, though, the Saints' offense is firing on all cylinders. Kamara has accumulated over 100 total yards in both of his games since returning to the lineup (although he is still looking for his first touchdown of the year).
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With opening-week starter Jameis Winston's status unclear, backup Andy Dalton is the presumed starter for this week's game. Regardless of who starts, they'll be in a good position to have success against a Cardinals defense that is 24th in pass DVOA. Dalton has topped 200 yards just once in his three starts but will be getting rookie wideout Chris Olave back. When making a Saints-Cardinals prediction, it's worth keeping in mind how Dalton has faired in primetime. The Saints quarterback is 6-18 in primetime matchups – the worst record among quarterbacks in the 21st century.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
It's hard to believe this Cardinals team started 7-0 last season. Arizona has struggled coming out of the gate this season. They're 29th in team DVOA, 22nd in points per game, and 31st in yards per play. The defense has been mediocre at best, allowing the 22nd-most points per game and the 27th-highest completion percentage. The Cardinals, to be blunt, have not been good. Why is there optimism about an Arizona cover, then?
That's simple. DeAndre Hopkins is back. The Cardinals' star wide receiver will make his season debut after being suspended for the first six games for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. His addition is a sight for sore eyes if you're a Cardinals backer. Last season Hopkins was limited to just ten games. He accumulated 42 receptions for 572 yards and eight touchdowns when available. The thirty-year-old has six 1,000-yard seasons under his belt. In his last full season with Arizona, he eclipsed 1,400 yards.
Hopkins' return should do wonders for the Cardinals this week and going forward. The Cardinals are 16-10 all-time with Hopkins in the lineup. The wide receiver was a major part of their 7-0 start last year and it's no coincidence that they started losing games once he got hurt. The biggest impact will come with quarterback Kyler Murray. Murray hasn't been his usual self this season. However, he's due to have some big games with his favorite target back.
With Hopkins in the lineup, Murray completes 4% more of his passes, has an 11-point high passer rating, and throws for nearly 30 yards more per game compared to when he's not available. Hopkins makes such a difference for his quarterback and his return cannot be understated. Even with the new Call of Duty coming out this week Kyler is primed to have his best game of the season with Hopkins back and facing a Saints defense that is 21st in pass DVOA.
Final Saints-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
It's Thursday Night Football, so you know the drill. Hammer that under.
Final Saints-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Under 43.5 (-110)
