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It's a Lone Star State battle in Week 2 of the preseason, with the Texans traveling north to face the Cowboys. It’s time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Texans-Cowboys prediction and pick.
While Dallas is 0-2 and Houston is 0-1 thus far in the preseason, the teams' expectations for the regular season differ greatly from these misleading records. Dallas has their eyes set on winning the NFC East, while Houston will likely be one of football's worst teams this season. The Texans quarterback situation remains up in the air, so backups featured in this game may end up starting in the regular season soon. In Dallas, Dak Prescott is set to return from injury, but three other quarterbacks each received significant playing time last week in their loss to Arizona.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for Saturday's matchup.
NFL Odds: Texans-Cowboys Odds
Houston Texans +4 (-114)
Dallas Cowboys -4 (-106)
Over 36 1/2 points (-110)
Under 36 1/2 points (-110)
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Why The Texans Could Cover
With no clear picture as to whether or not DeShaun Watson will play for the Texans this season or anytime soon for that matter, the team could be starting a rookie at QB come Week 1 in early September. That rookie is Davis Mills, a 2021 draft pick from Stanford University. In his NFL preseason debut, Mills went 11 for 22 with 112 yards passing and one interception. It wasn't an overly impressive performance, but receiving the bulk of Houston's time under center is a clear vote in confidence by the Texans coaching staff. Expect Mills to get the majority of snaps again this week as the team assesses if he has what it takes to start in the regular season as just a rookie. Keep in mind, Mills was one of the better quarterbacks in the Pac-12 over the course of his four-year stint in Stanford, but being a rookie in the NFL comes with its fair share of difficulties as well. And while the Texans other quarterback options (Tyrod Taylor and Jeff Driskel) both do have NFL experience, I believe one of the most important parts of the preseason is evaluating talent that really has not seen much time as a professional. If Mills can play just slightly better than he did last week, the Texans should have no problem cover the rather large four point spread. With his average play last week, Houston still won by a ton.
Why The Cowboys Could Cover
Three different quarterbacks threw at least 13 pass attempts in Dallas' loss last week. Cooper Rush has not completed a pass in a regular season NFL game since 2017. Garrett Gilbert started one game for the Cowboys 2020 and actually played a key role in helping Dallas almost defeat the Steelers. Ben DiNucci started one game for the Cowboys in 2020 but largely struggled, as he lost two fumbles and was sacked four different times. While this trio is nothing too spectacular, it does mean something that the Cowboys gave each QB significant playing time last week. My best guess here is that means its an open competition in Dallas for the backup QB role, and its any of these three's to win (or lose). With just two preseason games remaining, I'm expecting each QB to play their best game yet of the preseason and give the coaches a tough decision about who earns the backup role. As such, their impressive play will allow the Cowboys to knock off a Houston team that is simply not a good football team right now.
Final Texans-Cowboys Prediction & Pick
The Cowboys ongoing backup quarterback battle stands out as the biggest storyline for me here. Based on general preseason trends, I really don't expect the Cowboys to fall to 0-3 either. Each of Dallas' three quarterbacks impresses, at least one throws a passing touchdown, and Houston goes back south with their first loss of this preseason.
FINAL PICK: Cowboys -4 (-106)
