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The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will continue their division series matchup with a Wednesday afternoon tilt for Game 2 in Atlanta (now an evening start following a weather delay). With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Phillies-Braves prediction and pick, laid out below.
Philadelphia snuck into the postseason with an 87-75 record, securing the third and final NL Wild Card spot. Then, Philadelphia swept St. Louis in the Wild Card round, fueled by an improbable ninth-inning comeback in the first game of that series.
Atlanta somehow won the NL East with a 101-61 record, surging past the Mets across the final two months of the season, stamped by a three-game sweep in Atlanta. Now, Atlanta is facing adversity after losing the first game of this series by a 7-6 margin.
Here are the Phillies-Braves MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Braves Game 2 Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-184)
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+152)
Over: 7.5 (-104)
Under: 7.5 (-118)
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
Philadelphia will send Zack Wheeler to the mound in this one, looking to build a two-game lead in the division series. Wheeler opened the playoffs for Philadelphia with a solid 6.1 innings, holding St. Louis to two hits and a walk with no runs scored. Batters hit a brutal .100 against Wheeler in that game. In the regular season, Wheeler went 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA and 163 strikeouts in 153 innings across 26 starts. Against Wheeler's slider, which he throws about 27 percent of the time, batters have hit just .204.
A big loss looms in the bullpen as David Robertson is slated to miss at least this series with a calf strain. Robertson threw a scoreless inning with two strikeouts in his lone postseason appearance this season. Zach Eflin, the new closer, has been money since shifting to the bullpen. In his seven relief appearances to end the regular season, Eflin allowed one earned run while striking out nine and walking none in 7.2 innings. Jose Alvarado fired a shutout inning in yesterday's game and Seranthony Dominguez shutout Atlanta across two innings. Eflin and Connor Brogdon both struggled, combining to surrender five runs in 1.1 innings of relief, bailed out by an early lead.
Philadelphia's offense is enviable, led by Kyle Schwarber, who led the National League with 46 home runs in the regular season. Schwarber has yet to record a hit in the playoffs but does have two RBI. Bryce Harper opened this series with an impressive three-for-four effort, scoring a run and working a walk. Nick Castellanos was the star of yesterday's game, registering three hits in his five at-bats, knocking in three runs, and making the diving catch to save the game. JT Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins turned in great regular seasons, and the pair combined for three runs scored in yesterday's game. Philadelphia is averaging five runs per game in the postseason.
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
Kyle Wright is this afternoon's starting pitcher for Atlanta. Wright turned around an awful 2019-2021 stretch to 21 wins in 2022. Overall, Wright was 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 174 strikeouts in 180.1 innings across his 30 starts. Wright has struck out 23.6 percent of the batters he has faced while walking 7.2 percent, both career bests for the right-hander.
Atlanta's bullpen was relied upon heavily in the opener, throwing 5.2 innings while surrendering one earned run and striking out seven. Collin McHugh was the only high-leverage guy used in the game, firing 1.1 innings of shutout baseball. Spencer Strider, who finished the season on the injured list, made the postseason roster, and will likely be used in a relief role to protect his oblique. Lefty Tyler Matzek will be missed, as the veteran is back in Texas undergoing tests on his balky throwing elbow. Some combination of Raisel Iglesias, Kenley Jansen, AJ Minter, Strider, and McHugh will be relied upon to finish close games.
Atlanta found themselves in an early hole with Fried struggling in his start, but with Travis d'Arnaud and Matt Olson supplying three RBI each, Atlanta pulled to within one run in the ninth inning. Olson belted a three-run home run as part of that exciting ninth-inning rally. However, William Contreras' sinking line drive that was caught by a diving Castellanos seemed to take the air out of the offense. d'Arnaud grounded out to end the game in the next at-bat. Still, given this pitching staff, six runs should win more games than not.
Final Phillies-Braves Game 2 Prediction & Pick
Atlanta is just too good to not rebound in this one. A 101-win team will not go quietly into the night.
Final Phillies-Braves Prediction & Pick: Atlanta -1.5 (+152), under 7.5 (-118)
