UFC Shanghai: Nassourdine Imavov versus Caio Borralho continues on the prelims fight between Oumar Sy and Brendson Ribeiro in the light heavyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Sy-Ribeiro prediction and pick.
Oumar Sy (11-1) steps into UFC Paris fresh off a unanimous decision win over Da Woon Jung, showing versatile striking and cage control. His lone career loss was a unanimous decision setback against Alonzo Menifield earlier this year, making this matchup with Ribeiro a crucial rebound spot for the French prospect.
Brendson Ribeiro (17-8, 1 NC) enters UFC Paris after a tough first-round TKO loss to Azamat Murzakanov at UFC 316, marking his most recent setback. Before that, Ribeiro secured an impressive second-round submission of Diyar Nurgozhay, showing his finishing ability heading into the clash with Sy.
Here are the UFC Paris Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Paris odds: Oumar Sy-Brendson Ribeiro odds
Oumar Sy: -440
Brendson Ribeiro: +340
Over 1.5 rounds: -160
Under 1.5 rounds: +124
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Why Oumar Sy will win
- Last Fight: (L) Alonzo Menifield – DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 8 (4 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Oumar Sy holds significant advantages heading into UFC Paris, starting with his size, athleticism, and defensive mastery. At 6’4” with an 83-inch reach, Sy uses range well and boasts a 71% significant strike defense paired with a perfect 100% takedown defense in UFC competition, making him extremely tough to overwhelm.
Sy’s striking is both efficient and powerful, landing at a 50% clip and allowing just 2.7 significant strikes per minute—among the division’s best marks. His seven first-round finishes, split evenly between knockouts and submissions, reflect an ability to capitalize early if Ribeiro exposes defensive gaps or gets reckless chasing a quick finish.
Ribeiro may hunt for a fast stoppage, but his 52% strike defense and history of knockout losses represent major vulnerabilities against a sharp counter-puncher like Sy. In the clinch or on the mat, Sy’s superior grappling awareness and composure make him unlikely to fall to Ribeiro’s submission threats.
If Sy controls the tempo and sticks to a patient, technical approach in front of his home crowd, he should dictate the action and either score a late finish or cruise to a clear points victory in Paris.
Why Brendson Ribeiro will win
- Last Fight: (L) Azamat Murzakanov – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 16 (9 KO/TKO/7 SUB)
Brendson Ribeiro enters UFC Paris as a dynamic finisher, carrying 14 of his 17 wins by stoppage—evidence of his fight-ending power and submission threat. His aggressive style, highlighted by a second-round submission over Diyar Nurgozhay, suggests he can capitalize if Sy makes early mistakes or gets caught in an exchange.
Ribeiro’s unpredictability on the feet is complemented by deceptive grappling that punishes overcommitment, making him dangerous in scrambles or wild exchanges. While Sy’s athleticism and length pose challenges, Ribeiro is comfortable fighting in the pocket and excels at closing distance with explosive combinations, forcing opponents onto the back foot.
Having fought through adversity in his career, Ribeiro has learned to recover quickly—even after suffering setbacks like his recent TKO loss to Murzakanov. If he draws Sy into a brawl or exploits transitional moments on the ground, Ribeiro’s finishing instincts could end the fight suddenly, especially early in the contest.
In a volatile light heavyweight landscape, Ribeiro has the weapons to pull off an upset—provided he starts fast, takes risks, and doesn’t allow Sy to dictate range or pace for long stretches.
Final Oumar Sy-Brendson Ribeiro prediction & pick
Oumar Sy and Brendson Ribeiro square off at UFC Paris in a matchup that pits the French prospect’s patient precision against Ribeiro’s explosive finishing ability. Sy enters at 11-1, boasting superior reach, refined striking defense, and a perfect takedown defense—attributes that make him a daunting puzzle for aggressive opponents.
If Sy can maintain range with his jab and force Ribeiro to overreach, he’ll have ample opportunities to land crisp counters or time level changes for defensive grappling, neutralizing Ribeiro’s early surge. His track record of seven first-round finishes suggests Sy is more than capable of capitalizing should Ribeiro leave any opening in pursuit of a knockout.
However, Ribeiro represents a legitimate wild card—having finished 14 of his 17 professional wins and showing a knack for sudden submissions or unorthodox attacks. The key to victory for Ribeiro will be forcing Sy out of his comfort zone and capitalizing before the fight becomes a measured affair.
Ultimately, Sy’s technical discipline, home crowd energy, and sharp defensive tools make him the safer bet to control the contest and earn a clear decision—or possibly a late finish if Ribeiro fades under pressure.
Final Oumar Sy-Brendson Ribeiro Prediction & Pick: Oumar Sy (-440), Over 1.5 Rounds (-160)
