Subscribe
Follow Us
It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Cardinals prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Padres-Cardinals.
The San Diego Padres probably have the National League Rookie of the Year on their roster. It looked as though Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates was going to be NL Rookie of the Year, given his dominant arrival on the scene in Major League Baseball, capped by his starting turn in the All-Star Game in Arlington. Skenes' rise in baseball has been meteoric, and he took the MLB world by storm in the spring and early summer. However, the Pirates have once again faded into irrelevance, as they usually do. Skenes is pitching only once every fifth or sixth day. He's still doing a good job, but his team is not. The Pirates were in the playoff hunt a month ago. Now they're out after a downward spiral. Meanwhile, in San Diego, Jackson Merrill continues to not only play elite baseball, but make winning plays.
Most of the time, Merrill is slashing a game-tying or game-winning hit in the late innings. Occasionally, he makes a diving catch in center field. Someway, somehow, Merrill just keeps coming up big for the Padres, making a decisive imprint on his team's season. He just keeps rolling. He hit a game-winning home run in the bottom of the ninth on Sunday to beat the New York Mets.
How clutch has Merrill been this year? Get this: Padres beat writer A.J. Cassavell of MLB.com noted on Sunday that in 14 plate appearances in the ninth inning with the Padres tied or trailing by one run in 2024, Jackson Merrill is hitting .583 with five home runs. Merrill's five tying or go-ahead homers in the ninth inning are two more than anyone else in baseball. Merrill, at 21 years old, is legitimately clutch, right up there with Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. It's actually hard to see how Paul Skenes can do anything in September to change the NL Rookie of the Year outcome.
Padres-Cardinals Projected Starters
Randy Vasquez vs. Kyle Gibson
Randy Vasquez (4-6) has a 4.63 ERA. Vasquez will make his first start in two and a half weeks in this game. As a back-end rotation starter, Vasquez has been reasonably competent. What he did in his last start — on Aug. 8 — is what a back-end rotation guy is asked to do: Stay away from the big inning, eat some innings, and keep the team in the game. The Padres would be happy if Vasquez can give them five innings here and not allow more than two runs.
Last Start: August 8 versus the Pittsburgh Pirates: 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
2024 Road Splits: 9 starts, 40 IP, 57 H, 27 R, 6 HR, 11 BB, 24 K
Kyle Gibson (7-5) has a 4.22 ERA. The Cardinals' problems lie mostly with an offense which hasn't been able to get off the ground, but if Gibson was pitching to a 3.72 ERA instead of an ERA which is half a run higher at 4.22, the Cardinals might have a few more wins in their pocket. They were expecting a little more from Gibson this season, whose walk-strikeout ratio in home starts is not where any team would want it to be.
Last Start: Wednesday, August 21 versus the Milwaukee Brewers: 5 1/3 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
2024 Home Splits: 12 starts, 64 1/3 IP, 78 H, 37 R, 5 HR, 27 BB, 49 K
Here are the Padres-Cardinals MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Cardinals Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+140)
Moneyline: -110
St Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-170)
Moneyline: -106
Over: 9.5 (-108)
Article Continues Below
Under: 9.5 (-112)
How to Watch Padres vs Cardinals
Time: 7:45 p.m. ET/4:45 p.m. PT
TV: MLB (Padres) / Bally Sports Midwest (Cardinals) / MLB Extra Innings
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres are doing what former Cardinal manager Mike Shildt did in St. Louis several years ago: Go on a winning binge in the second half of the season. The Cardinals need a 17-3 20-game run, but it's the Padres who have actually done that. San Diego inspires a lot more confidence and is the better team. It's that simple.
Why The Cardinals Will Cover The Spread/Win
Kyle Gibson is a better pitcher than Randy Vasquez and will be the defining difference in the outcome.
Final Padres-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
This game is priced as a coin flip, and we agree that it feels like a coin flip. Pass on this one.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Padres-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Padres moneyline
