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The San Diego Padres will begin a three-game series with the New York Mets on Friday at Citi Field. We're here to share our MLB odds series while making a Padres-Mets prediction and pick while showing you how to watch.
Padres-Mets Projected Starters
Matt Waldron vs. Sean Manaea
Matt Waldron (4-5) with a 3.76 ERA
Last Start: Waldron had a good outing last time out as he went six innings while allowing one earned run on three hits while striking out four and walking two in a win over the Arizona Diamondbacks. It was his third straight quality start.
2024 Road Splits: Waldron has done well on the road, with a 2-1 record with a 3.22 ERA over seven starts away from Petco Park.
Sean Manaea (3-3) with a 4.30 ERA
Last Start: Manaea imploded in his last start, going just 3 2/3 innings while allowing six earned runs and seven hits in a loss to the Philadelphia Phillies.
2024 Home Splits: Manaea has struggled at Citi Field, going 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Mets Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+138)
Moneyline: -118
New York Mets: +1.5 (-166)
Moneyline: +100
Over: 8 (-115)
Under: 8 (-105)
How to Watch Padres vs. Mets
Time: 7:07 PM ET/4:07 PM PT
TV: Sportsnet NY
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres have stayed alive in the National League West because they have had a good mixture of hitting and pitching. Furthermore, they have done well enough to generate some good production.
The Padres have been exceptional at making contact. Currently, they are first in the league in batting average and fifth in on-base percentage. San Diego is also eighth in runs, home runs, and slugging percentage.
Jurickson Profar is the main leadoff guy. Substantially, he is hitting .250 with 15 hits, one home run, nine RBIs, and 13 runs against the Mets. Luis Arraez has loved playing the Mets. Significantly, he is batting .500 (17 for 34) with two RBIs and four runs over 10 games against them. Fernando Tatis Jr. has dominated the Mets. So far, he is hitting .315 with 17 hits, three home runs, nine RBIs, and nine runs over 13 games against them. Manny Machado had a boom-or-bust season against the Mets last season. Ultimately, he hit .200 with three home runs, 10 RBIs, and five runs over six games.
The Padres have been okay on the mound. Overall, they are 13th in team ERA. San Diego also has some solid relievers. Significantly, they are 14th in team ERA.
The Padres will cover the spread if their best hitters can find a way to get on base and drive some runners home. Then, they need Waldron to pitch well.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets have struggled this season because they have not been able to overcome their divisional rivals or the other teams they have faced. Moreover, they have not consistently put things together.
The Mets have done okay at the plate. So far, they are 13th in batting average and home runs. New York is also 12th in on-base percentage and 15th in runs and slugging percentage. Thus, there has been some inconsistency across the board, but they still have some good players who can get the job done.
Francisco Lindor has been solid against the Padres. So far, he is batting .273 with 24 hits, four home runs, 11 RBIs, and 14 runs over 22 games against them. Pete Alonso has had mixed results against the Padres. Overall, he is hitting .250 with 19 hits, three home runs, 10 RBIs, and 15 runs over 24 games against them. Alonso also is hitting .333 (12 for 36) with two home runs, five RBIs, and nine runs over 12 games at Petco Park. Meanwhile, J.D. Martinez is an option for the Mets. Martinez is batting .304 with 31 hits, nine home runs, 28 RBIs, and 15 runs over 29 games against the Padres.
The Mets have struggled on the mound. Ultimately, they are 21st in team ERA. But the bullpen has done better. Currently, they ranked 13th in bullpen ERA.
The Mets will cover the spread if Lindor, Alonso, and Martinez can batter the baseball. Then, they need Manaea to bounce back from the worst start of his season.
Final Padres-Mets Prediction & Pick
The Padres have covered the run line in half their games. Meanwhile, the Mwets are 31-35 against the spread. But the Padres are 22-10 against the spread on the road. Conversely, the Mets are 13-23 against the spread at home. It is also incredibly challenging to ignore Manaea's struggles at home. Likewise, Waldron has been good on the road. Because of this, we believe the Padres will rise to the challenge and make contact with his pitches, allowing them to cover the spread on the road.
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Final Padres-Mets Prediction & Pick: San Diego Padres -1.5 (+138)
