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The New York Mets host the San Diego Padres for Game 2 of a 3-game set in the Big Apple! It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Mets prediction and pick.
Padres-Mets Projected Starters
Adam Mazur vs. Jose Quintana
Adam Mazur (0-1) with a 9.00 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, seven walks, and four strikeouts.
Last Start: 3.0 innings, eight earned runs, eight hits, three walks, two strikeouts against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
2024 Road Splits: 6.0 innings, two hits, one earned run, four walks, two strikeouts.
Jose Quintana (1-5) with a 5.29 ERA in 66.1 innings. He has 44 strikeouts and a 1.43 WHIP.
Last Start: 3.2 innings, three earned runs, six hits, two walks, and one strikeout against the Philadelphia Phillies.
2024 Home Splits: (0-3) with a 3.86 ERA in 32.2 innings.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Mets Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+160)
Moneyline: +106
New York Mets: +1.5 (-194)
Moneyline: -124
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
How to Watch Padres vs. Mets
Time: 4:10 ET/1:10 PT
TV: MLB.TV, SportsNet New York
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
Note: All Statistics are prior to Friday night's game against the Mets
The Padres are coming off a series sweep of the Oakland Athletics at Petco Park. That was their first sweep of the season and it comes at the right time. The offense has come alive and the starting pitching has been dominant for the most part as of late. San Diego leads the league in team batting average (.262) and hits (639). The next closest team is the Houston Astros at 615. Luis Arraez and Jurickson Profar are No. 2 and No. 3 in the league in average behind Bobby Witt Jr. (.330), who is tearing up the American League right now.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has found his groove. He just ended a 17-game hit streak in the finale against the A's and had a chance to extend it, however, he chose to force a tough walk that resulted in Donovan Solano smashing a game-tying 2-run smash. Tatis has seen his numbers increase over the last few weeks and is now batting .341 on the road with an OPS of .405. Solano is batting .313 with three homers and 10 RBIs in just 80 ABs this season.
Mazur had a rough start against the Diamondbacks but saw a lot of success in his debut. After allowing eight runs in his last start, there is no doubt he will improve this time around, even if it's a little. If he can give the Friars five innings then they should cover this spread or slightly win the first game.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
Note: All Statistics are prior to Friday night's game against the Padres
Don't look away now, the Mets have won six of their last 10 games and won their last two against a poor Miami Marlins squad. The Mets need a good stretch right now if they want any chance to make a run in that difficult NL East Division. One of the biggest issues is they are just 15-23 at home. Much like the Friars, they have a hard time performing in front of their home crowd. The bad news is that the Friars are very good away from Petco Park. They are 19-14 on the road and are one of the toughest teams to stop at the plate.
Of the everyday starters, Starling Marte leads the Mets with a .286 batting average and the next highest is J.D. Martinez at .271 and Harrison Bader at .267. That is not going to cut it. Francisco Lindor is batting .232 with 11 homers and 32 RBIs. Pete Alonso is batting just .233 with 14 homers and 32 RBIs as well. Brandon Nimmo was supposed to be an X-factor for the Mets but is batting just .215 with only 20 extra-base hits. The Mets must get production from those three in this series if they want a chance at winning it.
The Mets need to make sure Mark Vientos is in the lineup every day. He is 2nd on the offense with a 1.2 WAR and is batting .309 on the year with an OPS of .929. He has a bright future for the Mets.
Jose Quintana has never lost to the Padres in his career, however, he has a 5.70 ERA in 7 appearances against SD.
Final Padres-Mets Prediction & Pick
This is a tough prediction to make in terms of a winner. The Padres are the better team but with Mazur on the bump, it's tough to trust them. I do like the Over at 8.5 runs as this should be a high-scoring affair. The Over is the best bet on the board.
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Final Padres-Mets Prediction & Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
