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It's a National League East rivalry showdown between two of the division's top pitchers when the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves face off on Wednesday night. The series begins Tuesday night with the Braves trailing the Phillies by seven games in the division standings. The Braves are also in another race with a different division rival, as the New York Mets are sitting 1.5 games behind them for the last wild card position. The Phillies may have a convincing lead in the standings, but the Braves have won four of six matchups this season. Atlanta could make the race interesting if they continue that success this week. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Braves prediction and pick.
Phillies-Braves Projected Starters
Aaron Nola vs. Max Fried
Aaron Nola (11-6) with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.
Last Start: vs. Nationals, 6 2/3 IP, 4 SO, 7 H, 2 BB, 0 ER,
2024 Road Splits: (6-3) with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.
Max Fried (7-7) with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.
Last Start: @ Giants, 5 1/3 IP, 5 SO, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 ER,
2024 Home Splits: (2-3) with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Braves Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+155)
Moneyline: +100
Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-188)
Moneyline: -118
Over: 8 (-122)
Under: 8 (+100)
How to Watch Phillies vs. Braves
Time: 7:20 PM ET/4:20 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports, NBC Sports
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
Max Fried has been going through one of the worst stretches of his career, allowing 18 earned runs over his last five starts. He has gotten past the fifth inning twice in those five starts, which isn't a good sign for Atlanta. Fried and Charlie Morton are a big reason the Braves haven't been able to capitalize on the Phillies' recent struggles, as they've lost each of their past two starts.
The Phillies are starting to come around after a difficult stretch, and a matchup with a lefty could be just what the doctor ordered. The Phillies are batting a whopping .336 against left-handed pitching over their last ten games, with a .392 on-base percentage and 6.4 runs/nine.
Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Braves have won four of six games against the Phillies this season and have had tons of success at Truist Park. The Phillies are above .500 on the road but hold just a 31-28 record while owning a 42-23 record at Citizens Bank Park. The Braves took two of three games at home and two of three games in Philadelphia already this season, which should give them the confidence to do it again in this series.
Final Phillies-Braves Prediction & Pick
We know that these two teams can have explosive offensive games. From the outset, this could be a pitching duel with these two battling on the mound. However, the positive of these two teams being division rivals is that the offenses have experience facing them. The past experiences have not gone well for the pitchers, which leads us to look at the over in this matchup.
Nola and Max have faced off against each other two times this season. The scores of the games have been 12-4 for Atlanta and 8-6 for Philadelphia. Fried allowed eight earned runs over the two games, while Nola allowed nine. The odds are considering this but there is still some value considering there have been 30 runs over two matchups this season.
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Final Phillies-Braves Prediction & Pick: Over 8 (-122)
