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Atletico Madrid needs a win to get back into UCL playoff position as they visit PSG. It is time to continue our Champions League odds series with a PSG-Atletico Madrid prediction and pick.
PSG comes into this game sitting at 1-1-1 in UCL play. They opened up with a 1-0 win over Girona, before falling to Arsenal 2-0. Last time out, they hosted PSV Eindhoven. They would finish that game with a 1-1 draw. Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid is just 1-0-2 this UCL season. They opened up with a win over RB Leipzig but would fall 4-0 to Benfica, and then 3-1 to Lille.
Here are the PSG-Atletico Madrid Champions League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Champions League Odds: PSG-Atletico Madrid Odds
PSG:-140
Atletico Madrid: +370
Draw: +300
Over 2.5 goals: -132
Under 2.5 goals: +108
How to Watch PSG vs. Atletico Madrid
Time: 3:00 PM ET/ 12:00 PM PT
TV: Paramount+
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Subscribe now to MLS Season Pass and watch every match including the playoffs.
Why PSG Will Win
PSG has scored great this year. They have scored 31 goals over 13 fixtures across all leagues. Further, they have scored in 12 of 13 fixtures this year. They also average .92 goals in the first half. Still, they have just two goals in UCL play, averaging just .67 goals per game. Further, they have yet to score in the first half in UCL play.
Bradley Barcola has led the way for PSG this year. In domestic league play, he has scored eight goals with two assists. That is on an expected six goals, but also an expected 3.7 assists this year. Barcola does not have a goal or assist in UCL play, on an expectation of .7 goals plus assists. The lone goal scored by PSG, with their other goal being an opponent's own goal, has been scored by Achraf Hakimi. Hakimi has scored once in domestic league play, while also adding three assists. PSG would like to see production from Ousmane Dembele. He has scored five goals and has four assists in domestic league play, but has not scored on an expected 1.5 goals in UCL play. Still, he has missed some time this year due to injury.
This year, PSG has allowed 11 goals in their 13 fixtures across all leagues. They have allowed three goals so far in UCL play. Gianluigi Donnarumma has allowed the three goals, allowing three goals on eight shots on target in UCL play. Matvei Safonov played the other game for PSG, stopping the only shot on target he faced.
Why Atletico Madrid Will Win
Atletico Madrid has scored 23 goals across 16 fixtures in all leagues. That is good for 1.44 goals per game this year. Atletico Madrid has scored in 13 of 16 fixtures this year but has struggled in the first half of games. They have scored in just seven of 16 first halves and scored just eight total goals in the first half. In UCL play, Atletico Madrid has scored in two of three games, with three total goals.
Alexander Sorloth has been solid this year for Atletico Madrid. In league play, he has scored four goals with two assists. The four goals are on an expected 4.5 goals though. He has not scored in UCL play on an expected 1.2 goals. Meanwhile, Antonie Griezmann has been solid as well. In UCL play he has a goal and an assist. This is on an expected 1.4 goals and 1.2 assists though. In domestic league play, he has scored three goals and four assists. Also playing solid for Atletico this year has been Julian Alvarez. He has scored three times with an assist in league play while having one goal in UCL play this year.
Atletico Madrid has been solid on defense this year. They have allowed 15 goals over 16 fixtures this year. Still, eight of the 15 goals have come in UCL play, including giving up three goals to Lille and four goals to Benfica. Jan Oblak has struggled in UCL play. First, he has allowed all three penalty kicks against him to score, while allowing eight total goals on 16 shots on targets.
Final PSG-Atletico Madrid Prediction & Pick
PSG has lost just once this year, falling to Arsenal in UCL play. Overall, they are 9-3-1 across all matches this year. Further, they are 6-1-0 at home this year. Atletico Madrid is 8-5-3 over all of their fixtures, but 3-3-2 on the road this year. The only win in their last four on the road was in Copa del Ray play over Vic, a sixth-tier Spanish squad. While PSG has struggled to score, Atletico Madrid is giving up plenty of goals and will continue to do so in this one.
Final PSG-Atletico Madrid Prediction & Pick: PSG ML (-140)
