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The SMU Mustangs look to continue the momentum from last season as they head into the 2023 season. We are here to share our college football odds series, making an SMU over-under win total prediction and pick.
The SMU Mustangs went 7-5 in 2022, including a 5-3 record in the ACC. Now, they look to build on that momentum as they head into 2023. The season started strong for the Mustangs as they routed North Texas 48-10. Then, they defeated Lamar 45-16 in Week 2. But they began a slide in the following week. First, they fell 34-27 against Maryland on the road. They followed this up with a 42-34 loss to TCU. Next, they fell 41-19 to UCF.
But the Mustangs ended the slump by defeating Navy 40-34. However, they fell 29-27 to Cincinnati. They defeated Tulsa 45-34 on the road. Next, they defeated Houston 77-63 to make it two wins in a row. The Mustangs defeated South Florida 41-23 on the road. Unfortunately, they suffered a 59-24 loss to Tulane. The Mustangs ended the regular season with a 34-31 win over Memphis. Finally, they ended the season with a 24-23 loss to BYU in the New Mexico Bowl.
BYU lost one significant player in the draft. Significantly, the Kansas City Chiefs took wide receiver Rashee Rice with the 55th pick in the second round. The Mustangs will have to replace his incredible value.
SMU hopes to make it back to a Bowl Game. Furthermore, they expect better results this time around.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 8.5 wins: +128
Under 8.5 wins: -160
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Why SMU Can Win 8.5 Games
The Mustangs need some offense and good health to compete. Ultimately, they did not have either last season. But there is a new opportunity for the Mustangs, and the team believes it will make them better.
Quarterback Preston Stone is coming back from an injury. Sadly, he threw for 388 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception before suffering the ailment. The Mustangs hope he can come back from the injury and be a better quarterback.
They lost Rice to the NFL. However, there is still talent. Wide receiver Jordan Kerley was the second-best pass catcher last season. Now, he gets a chance to take over for the Mustangs. Kerley caught 37 passes for 588 yards in 2022. Meanwhile, Moochie Dixon had 28 catches for 378 yards in 2022.
SMU added significant players at every position, as there were 17 transfers. Ultimately, half of their starters will be new. All the players they added were significant playmakers for their former teams. Now, the Mustangs hope they can contribute to their new team. One of the new players is linebacker Ahmad Walker, who will look to make an instant impact on the field.
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The Mustangs must play better in close games. Unfortunately, they were 1-4 in one-score games last season. There should be improvement in that aspect as they will find ways to win those games this time around.
SMU will win nine games this season because they have so many playmakers on their offense that can do damage. Additionally, they will win nine if they can mesh together as a unit.
Why SMU Can Not Win 8.5 Games
Teams can sometimes struggle to gel after so much turnover. Therefore, it will be interesting to see if SMU can come together quickly as a unit. There will be plenty of tests early.
The Mustangs lost Rice and need to replace his value. Furthermore, Stone must stay healthy as the Mustangs lost quarterback Tanner Mordecai after he was the starter for all of last season.
The first two games are against TCU and Oklahoma. Ultimately, those teams will present a significant challenge. The defense struggled a lot last year. Additionally, they could not handle the running game. Safety Nick Roberts is gone, and the Mustangs will need to replace his ability. Significantly, he had three interceptions in 2022.
Can the Mustangs play better as a unit without turning the ball over? They were 4-0 last year when they did not commit one. Sadly, they went 3-5 in the games where they had at least one.
SMU will not win nine games as they have too many issues on defense. Likewise, the team will have trouble building chemistry.
Final SMU Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
SMU made plenty of changes to their roster. Therefore, it will be difficult for them to come together fast and generate some wins. Expect SMU to struggle to find their footing at first. Ultimately, they might win seven games again.
Final SMU Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 8.5 wins: -160
