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Tennessee and Alabama are set for another rivalry matchup in Week 8 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. We continue our college football odds series with a Tennessee-Alabama prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Vols have won three in a row after a 20-13 victory over Texas A&M and sit just a game behind Georgia in the SEC East standings. Can Tennessee score back-to-back victories against Alabama for the first time since 2004?
As for the Crimson Tide, they've rebounded from the Week 2 loss to Texas by scoring five straight wins. The Crimson Tide will be seeking revenge after losing a 52-49 thriller in Knoxville a season ago.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Tennessee-Alabama Odds
Tennessee: +8.5 (-115)
Alabama: -8.5 (-105)
Over: 48.5 (-105)
Under: 48.5 (-115)
How to Watch Tennessee vs. Alabama Week 8
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT
TV: CBS
Article Continues Below
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Tennessee Will Cover The Spread
The Vols have looked like a different team since their ugly Week 3 loss at Florida. The reason for that? Defense. Everyone talks about Josh Heupel's entertaining approach on offense, but what they don't talk about enough is just how good his team has been on the other side of the ball this season.
Tennessee's numbers speak for themselves. The Vols have been tremendous in several key areas: fourth nationally in yards per completion allowed (9.1), ninth in yards per rush allowed (3.0), 10th in yards per play allowed (4.4), 15th in yards per passing attempt allowed (5.9), 17th in yards per game allowed (303.0), 18th in scoring defense (17.0), and 20th in rushing yards allowed (105.2). Pretty great, huh?
However, here's the most important stat: Tennessee is averaging 4.0 sacks per game (4th). How many sacks is Alabama allowing per game? 4.4. That ranks 129th nationally. That's how the Vols can not only cover the spread but win the game. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has been sacked at least four times in five straight games, and he has -50 rushing yards in the Tide's last two games against Arkansas and Texas A&M. He also completed just 47.6 percent of his passes against the Razorbacks. Tennessee's defense is better than both, which could be an issue for Milroe and the Alabama offense.
Speaking of offenses, yeah, the Vols can do some things there, too. The running game has been spectacular, as the foursome of quarterback Joe Milton and running backs Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small, and Dylan Sampson have combined for over 1,300 yards. Tennessee ranks fifth in yards per rush (5.9) and sixth in rushing yards per game (231.3). Of course, the problem could be that….
Why Alabama Will Cover The Spread
Alabama's defense is stout and also among the nation's best in a variety of categories: fifth in sacks per game (3.7), 10th in yards per rush (3.0), 13th in scoring defense (16.0), 15th in yards allowed (292.4), 15th in yards per play (4.5), 18th in yards per pass attempt (6.2), and 19th in yards per completion (10.4). Nick Saban is going to do everything he can to force Joe Milton to beat the Tide with his arm, because that's the key to victory for Alabama.
Milton has thrown three interceptions combined in the past two games, and he ranks 10th in the SEC in completion percentage this season (61.5%). Heupel wants to establish the run to open things up through the air, but if the Tide keep doing what they've been doing on defense, that's going to be a challenge. Milton went just 11 of 22 the best defense Tennessee has played in Texas A&M, and Alabama's ability to get in the backfield could be a big issue for his accuracy.
Something else to keep in mind: Tennessee has played just one road game in its first six games. The result? The Vols trailed 26-7 at halftime at Florida and lost 29-16 in a game that wasn't that close. With Alabama wanting payback from a season ago, that's not an ideal setup for a team that has struggled in its only performance away from Knoxville this season.
Final Tennessee-Alabama Prediction & Pick
This game could go several different ways. Milton could struggle against the Alabama defense, and the Crimson Tide win big. Milroe could struggle against the Tennessee defense, and the Vols escape with a victory. Or, as the over/under of 48.5 suggests, both defenses control the game and neither team is able to separate itself on the scoreboard. That seems like the most likely scenario, which is why 8.5 is a lot of points for a team that won by six against Texas A&M and three against Arkansas the past two weeks. Alabama should get its revenge, but Tennessee's defense should make things interesting enough to cover the spread.
Final Tennessee-Alabama Prediction & Pick: Tennessee +8.5 (-110)
