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The Texas Longhorns are set for their first season in the SEC, and expectations are high after reaching the College Football Playoff in 2023. We continue our college football odds series with a Texas over/under win total prediction for the 2024 college football season.
Speaking of the playoff, Steve Sarkisian is the only coach who returns to his team this season. Jim Harbaugh bolted for the Los Angeles Chargers after winning a national title at Michigan. Nick Saban retired. Kalen DeBoer left Washington to replace Saban at Alabama. That continuity could push the Longhorns ahead of the pack in the race for both an SEC and national title.
The question is, how will they adapt to the grind of playing in the toughest conference in college football?
Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Texas 2024 Win Total Odds
Over 10.5 Wins: (+144)
Under 10.5 Wins: (-178)
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Why Texas Will Hit the Over
The Longhorns have the best quarterback room in the country. It is as simple as that.
Quinn Ewers trails only former Oklahoma foe Dillon Gabriel (now at Oregon) and Georgia star Carson Beck in the preseason Heisman odds. He completed 70.7 percent of his throws a season ago, racking up 3,479 passing yards and 22 touchdowns.
Arch Manning, the son of Cooper Manning and nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning, threw just five passes in his freshman season in Austin. However, the top-rated player in the 2023 recruiting class is once again available should Texas need him.
Meanwhile, the Longhorns have one of the nation's best offensive lines, and the defense is also built to withstand the aggressive styles in the SEC.
Combine the roster with an appealing schedule, and there's reason for optimism with hitting over 10.5 wins. Texas avoids Alabama, Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU, and Tennessee – the five teams that were picked directly behind them in the SEC preseason media poll (the Longhorns were second).
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Why Texas Will Hit the Under
Some key production must be replaced in important areas.
For starters, the Longhorns have lost two running backs to season-ending injuries in the preseason – 2023 regular-season opener starter C.J. Baxter (138 CARs, 659 YDs, 5 TDs) and freshman Christian Clark. That's brutal for a position that needed to fill the production of now-Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Brooks (187 CARs, 1,139 YDs, and 10 TDs).
Despite the confidence in the quarterbacks, they're going to be throwing to some new faces as Texas loses its top five receivers from 2023, including two superstars in Xavier Worthy (75 RECs, 1,014 YDs, 5 TDs) and Adonai Mitchell (55 RECs, 855 YDs, 11 TDs). Worthy is now off catching throws from Patrick Mahomes with the Kansas City Chiefs, while Mitchell is doing the same from Anthony Richardson with the Indianapolis Colts.
A pair of transfers – Isaiah Bond (48 RECs, 668 YDs, 4 TDs) from Alabama and Silas Bolden (54 RECs, 746 YDs, 5 TDs) from Oregon State – will make an immediate impact, but the depth could be worth watching.
And, well, to hit the over 10.5 wins means you only have one loss to work with on the schedule. Georgia would be the most likely bet as the preseason No. 1 team in college football, even if that game is in Austin. However, the Longhorns must also travel to defending champion Michigan on September 7, play Oklahoma in Dallas on October 12, and renew their rivalry with Texas A&M in College Station in the regular season finale.
Finding two losses in that group wouldn't be difficult for even the best teams, so it will be tricky to navigate it with only one blemish on the resume.
Final Texas 2024 Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Texas currently has the fourth-best odds to win the national championship, and expectations are high for a reason.
The Longhorns are equipped to win every game on their schedule, including the aforementioned showdown with Georgia. That game could be the appetizer for a more important meeting in the College Football Playoff, and as of now, is the only game Texas would be an underdog in based on expectations for the other teams.
They also draw the three teams picked at the bottom of the SEC – Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt – while also getting Florida and Kentucky at home. The other non-conference games outside of Michigan should be wins, and they'd be slight favorites against Michigan, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M.
However, there is logic to picking the under on a team that lost 11 players to the NFL from last season's roster. There are multiple potential pitfalls on the schedule, and betting on a repeat regular season wins may be a lot to ask for given the swap to the SEC.
Luckily, two losses would still be enough to give Sarkisian and his team back-to-back CFP appearances.
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Final Texas 2024 Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 10.5 Wins: (-178)
