We're set for another betting prediction and pick from UFC Vegas 101 as we head to the Lightweight (155) Division for this next showdown on the Prelims. Thiago Moises of Brazil will take on Trey Ogden of Marathon MMA. Check out our UFC odds series for our Moises-Ogden prediction and pick.

Thiago Moises (18-8) has gone 7-6 inside the UFC since 2018. He's gone 3-2 over his last five fights, most recently dropping a bout to Ludovit Klein via unanimous decision. He'll be in a decent spot to bounce back from the recent loss as the moderate betting favorite. Moises stands 5-foot-9 with a 70.5-inch reach.

Trey Ogden (18-6) has gone 3-2-0-1 since his UFC debut in 2022. One of his recent fights against Nikolas Motta was ruled a ‘No Contest', but Ogden has managed to respond with back-to-back wins via unanimous decision. He'll look to extend his winning streak and potential get a shot at a top-15 opponent next.

Here are the UFC Vegas 101 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 101 Odds: Thiago Moises-Trey Ogden Odds

Thiago Moises: -180

Trey Ogden: +150

Over 2.5 rounds: -298

Under 2.5 rounds: +220

*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Thiago Moises Will Win

Thiago Moises has been around the UFC quite some time now and he's gotten a good look at all the different styles the Lightweight Division has to offer. Primarily a jiu jitsu technician, Moises won't be expecting any surprises against an opponent like Trey Ogden. While Ogden's BJJ is certainly elite, Moises has seen more time on the mats through his upbringing and has made a career off keeping his grappling in the back pocket and unleashing it when it matters most. Don't be surprised if we see Moises favor a more stand-up approach in this one.

Related NewsArticle continues below
Burns Morales prediction, UFC Vegas 106 odds
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 106
Bellato Craig prediction, ufc vegas 106 odds
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 106
Yusuff Santos prediction, UFC Vegas 106 odds
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 106


While Ogden's grappling should pose a threat, he has yet to face someone of Moises' caliber and it'll be interesting to see how aggressive Thiago becomes when chasing the takedowns. Many people also sleep on his striking, but he certainly has the faster hands and better movement when looking into this matchup. We could see Moises use his movement to pick-and-pop while circling and waiting for an opening to take the fight to the ground.

Why Trey Ogden Will Win

Trey Ogden has been on a hot streak and he's looked the best in his career over the last two fights. Against both Loik Radzhabov and Kurt Holobaugh, Ogden proved to be more sound defensively and didn't allow his opponents time to find their rhythm. Instead, Ogden was able to push a steady and effective pace while constantly keeping his opponent on the back foot. He also sports a 100% takedown defense rate and will be increasingly difficult for Moises to bring down during this one.


Trey Ogden is fighting behind a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu with 11 of his 18 professional wins coming by way of submission. While this will be the toughest grappler he's had to face in his career, Ogden is supremely confident in his submissions off the back and knows he can reverse this fight with the right movements. His work as an MMA coach has also expanded his knowledge of the game and ability to game plan for certain opponents.

Final Thiago Moises-Trey Ogden Prediction & Pick

This will be a very high-level matchup between two of the best submission artists in the division. While Trey Ogden is currently on a hot streak, I wonder how he'll be able to deal with a grappler slightly better than him if this fight hits the mat and the two begin scrambling. Moises is the slightly crisper striker and if he's able to land clean, we'll certainly see more damage coming from his end of the fight.

I think this fight will come down to the clinch situation and whichever side is more willing to accept the takedown. Ogden is a very good fighter and we should see the best version of him on Saturday, but this is ultimately a great matchup for Moises as he can feel confident wherever this fight takes place.

Final Thiago Moises-Trey Ogden Prediction & Pick: Thiago Moises (-180)