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The Detroit Tigers will begin a best-of-3 wildcard series with the Houston Astros on Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. There will be a problem in Houston as we share our MLB odds series and make a Tigers-Astros prediction and pick.
Tigers-Astros Game 1 Projected Starters
Tarik Skubal vs. Framber Valdez
Tarik Skubal (18-4) with a 2.39 ERA
Last Start: Skubal dominated in his last outing, tossing seven shutout innings, allowing two hits, and striking out seven in a win over the Tampa Bay Rays.
2024 Road Splits: Skubal has been worse on the road, going 8-3 with a 2.86 ERA over 15 road starts.
Framber Valdez (15-7) with a 2.91 ERA
Last Start: Valdez went 5 2/3 innings in his final regular season game, allowing three earned runs on eight hits while striking out four and walking two in a win over the Seattle Mariners.
2024 Home Splits: Valdez has been elite at home, going 9-2 with a 2.53 ERA over 15 starts at Minute Maid Park.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
AL Wild Card Odds: Tigers-Astros Game 1 Odds
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-188)
Moneyline: +126
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+155)
Moneyline: -148
Over: 6.5 (-105)
Under: 6.5 (-115)
How to Watch Tigers vs. Astros Game 1
Time: 2:30 PM ET/11:30 AM PT
TV: ABC
Article Continues Below
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Tigers Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Tigers are making their first playoff appearance since 2014. Coincidentally, they lost that season to the Baltimore Orioles, who they could have played had they beaten the Chicago White Sox on Sunday. It was the end of a stretch where they had made four consecutive playoff appearances, including a World Series appearance. Ultimately, they have made two World Series appearances in the last 18 years. However, they have not been able to win either, and they have been ringless since 1984.
There will be plenty of players making their first appearances in the postseason. Significantly, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Matt Vierling, and Parker Meadows will all look to make an impact in their first crack at postseason baseball. None of them are household names. Yet, all have a golden chance to make a mark as a heavy underdog against a team that has done this dance multiple times before.
Skubal will have the most pressure on him as he attempts to navigate a lineup with plenty of playoff experience. He is 1-1 with a 3.16 ERA over four career games against the Astros. Thus, he has had some success against them. When he finishes, he will turn it over to an inexperienced bullpen. Jason Foley is their closer and went 3-6 with a 3.15 ERA this season. Now, he will try to shut down one of the best lineups in baseball.
The Tigers will cover the spread if they can cobble together some hits and score early to give Skubal the lead. Then, they need good pitching from Skubal and for the bullpen to avoid collapsing.
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Astros are back in the postseason, making their eighth straight appearance. Amazingly, this is the second-longest playoff streak in baseball. These playoff appearances include four World Series appearances and two titles. Therefore, it's been a fantastic run for them, and they look to keep it going this time around. After struggling to start the season, the Astros bolted back into contention. Now, they are looking to try to win their third World Series, and it starts with a win in the wildcard.
Jose Altuve is looking to make more playoff memories. So far, he is batting .273 with 117 hits, 27 home runs, 55 RBIs, and 89 runs over 103 postseason games. Alex Bregman will also be a factor. Significantly, he is hitting .235 with 85 hits, 19 home runs, 54 RBIs, and 63 runs over 97 playoff games. Yordan Alvarez is a monster in the postseason. Substantially, he is batting .295 with 61 hits, 12 home runs, 41 RBIs, and 39 runs over 58 games. Kyle Tucker has struggled the most out of the “Big Four” and looks to do more. Ultimately, he is hitting .237 with 50 hits, eight home runs, 28 RBIs, and 27 runs over 62 playoff games.
Valdez will take the mound for Game 1 and look to get the Astros deep into this game. He comes in with a playoff record of 7-5 with a 4.24 ERA over 16 games. When Valdez exits, he will turn the game over to a Top-5 bullpen. They have two elite setup men, Bryan Abreau and Ryan Pressley. Overall, Abreu is 0-0 with a 2.66 ERA over 20 playoff games, while Pressly is 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA and 14 saves in 46 postseason games. Josh Hader is the closer and is o-2 with a 1.37 ERA and five saves in 16 postseason appearances.
The Astros will cover the spread if their “Big Four” can clobber the baseball and drive runners home across the plate. Then, they need Valdez to pitch well and get the lead to his elite setup men and closer.
Final Tigers-Astros Game 1 Prediction & Pick
It would be a nice story if the Tigers could shock the Astros and win Game 1 and then win this series. Unfortunately, talent matters. The Tigers simply don't have the star power aside from Skubal. Also, he will need some run support. Who is going to give it to him? Plus, this bullpen is questionable. Conversely, the Astros have a plethora of arms that can do some damage. Expect the Astros to roll in Game 1, especially after Skubal exits the game and hands it off to a shaky bullpen.
Final Tigers-Astros Game 1 Prediction & Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 (+155)
