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The Detroit Tigers and San Diego Padres meet for the finale of a 3-game series at Petco Park Thursday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Tigers-Padres prediction and pick.
Tigers-Padres Projected Starters
Casey Mize vs. Martin Perez
Casey Mize (2-6) with a 4.36 ERA, 62 K's, 1.43 WHIP, in 84.2 innings on the season.
Last Start: 6.0 innings, five hits, three earned runs, one walk, and four strikeouts in the 7-5 extra-innings loss to the Boston Red Sox.
2024 Road Splits: (2-3) with a 5.05 ERA in eight road starts. He's walked 13 batters and has allowed 21 runs in 35.2 innings.
Martin Perez (4-5) with a 4.71 ERA, 91 K's, 1.53 WHIP in 114.2 innings.
Last Start: 5.0 innings, seven hits, four earned runs, three walks, and four K's in the 13-5 win over the Tampa Bay Rays.
2024 Home Splits: At Petco Park, Perez has a 2.75 ERA in four starts this season. Further, He has 18 K's and only six earned runs in 19.2 innings.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Tigers-Padres Odds
Detroit Tigers: +1.5 (-162)
Moneyline: +136
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+134)
Moneyline: -162
Over: 8 (-118)
Under: 8 (-104)
How to Watch Tigers vs. Padres
Time: 8:40 ET/5:40 PT
TV: MLB.TV
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Tigers Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Tigers shot themselves in the foot last night when they blew a 5-0 lead to the Padres to lose the series. Matt Vierling, who is smashing the ball right now, started the contest off with a solo homer in the first inning off Yu Darvish. Darvish continued to struggle and ultimately allowed four runs as the Tigers stormed to a 5-0 lead in the 3rd inning. The Padres bullpen held off the Tigers for the rest of the game.
Vierling is the Tigers' top hitter. He leads the team in at-bats, runs scored, hits, and doubles while being one of their more consistent players, hitting .262 on the year. He has the second-highest WAR on the team at 2.7 behind Reily Greene at 4.5. Greene, who came up as one of the game's top prospects, is also having a respectable season. The Tigers do hope for more out of the young lefty, but he has excelled more often than not. He is hitting .256 with a .828 OPS while also leading the team in total bases at 203 and home runs with 20. If the Tigers want any chance at covering this spread again, then they need those two to hit the ball well tonight.
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
Jackson Merrill is going to be your 2024 NL Rookie of the Year. He is a massive -1400 favorite on FanDuel right now over Paul Skenes, who is +900. For the entire season, it seemed as if Skenes was going to win unanimously. However, as time went on, Merrill started to gain ground on the right-hander. It is quite fascinating because Skenes is pitching very well for the Pittsburgh Pirates, however, the team is not performing. The Pirates were just no-hit by the Chicago Cubs and it is only a matter of time until the Pirates shut Skenes down for the year.
Merrill is hitting just as well as anyone in the league right now. He smashed a three-run homer in the game last night which helped propel the Friars back from down five. Manny Machado tied the game and Fernando Tatis Jr. won it in the bottom of the 10th. The Friars' lineup is stacked right now and there is no telling who can slow them down.
Ha-Seong Kim, who has a WAR at 2.6, is still banged up and out of the lineup. The Padres are still awaiting his return but have seen a young Mason McCoy fill in nicely for him. McCoy is batting .250 with three RBIs in 14 games and has played stellar defense in place of the Gold Glover.
Final Tigers-Padres Prediction & Pick
This should be another close game on Sunday. The Tigers covered the run-line yesterday and I can see that happening again. The Padres are the better team and even though a moneyline pick may be safer, we're expecting the Tigers to keep this one close again with the same value.
Final Tigers-Padres Prediction & Pick: Tigers +1.5 (-162)
