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As one of the first Power Five schools to begin bowl season, Florida (7-5) will end the year against Tulane (9-4) in the 2024 Gasparilla Bowl. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Tulane-Florida prediction and pick.
Florida is coming off a dominant win over rival Florida State to end the regular season. They ended the year on a three-game win streak to secure bowl eligibility. The three-game stretch featured freshman sensation D.J. Lagway's return from a scary leg injury.
Tulane ended the year with two consecutive losses but made it to the American Athletic Championship Game for the third straight year. Their two-game losing streak, which culminated in a loss to No. 24 Army, ended an eight-game win streak during the middle of the year.
Tulane-Florida Last Game – Matchup History
Once they kick off, Florida and Tulane will meet for the first time since 1984, per the Gators' website. Florida unsurprisingly leads the overall series and has won the last 11 meetings between the two schools.
Overall Series: 13-6-2
Here are the Tulane-Florida Gasparilla Bowl odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Gasparilla Bowl Odds: Tulane-Florida Odds
Tulane: +13.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +360
Florida: -13.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -480
Over: 49.5 (-112)
Under: 49.5 (-108)
How to Watch Tulane vs. Florida in Gasparilla Bowl
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN 2
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Tulane Could Cover The Spread/Win
Florida will be without two key defensive players in this game: Jack Pyburn and TJ Searcy. Both could have wreaked havoc on Tulane. The Green Wave will also be missing some players, but the biggest defensive losses will be on the Gators' side. This Tulane offense, which has been one of the most efficient units in the country all year, has a chance to exploit a potentially weak Florida defense.
When at its best, Tulane wants to establish the run. Its 62.6 percent rush rate is among the top 10 in the country. Now, Tulane faces a Florida defense that allowed the second-most rush attempts per game in the SEC and the third-most rush yards. The team should only be weaker without Pyburn, who was second on the team with 60 tackles on the year.
Why Florida Could Cover The Spread/Win
At the end of their 2024 season, the future looked bright for Tulane with star freshman quarterback Darian Mensah. That all changed when he entered the transfer portal following their loss in the AAC Championship Game. Backup Ty Thompson, who will also enter the portal, has already been confirmed as the starter for the bowl game.
Florida will enter this game with some serious momentum. They finished the regular season on a three-game win streak, including ranked wins over LSU and Ole Miss. Lagway ended his freshman season with a 5-1 record in his six starts. The only game he lost was against Georgia when he left the game early with a leg injury.
Tulane ended its season with inverse momentum, losing its last two outings. Of its four losses, three came against ranked opponents, including its only two matchups against Power Five schools. Overall, only four of Tulane's nine wins came against teams set to appear in a bowl game, including only two over teams with winning records. With the exception of a 35-0 win over Navy — who played without quarterback Blake Horvath — the Green Wave fell short every time it faced a quality opponent.
Final Tulane-Florida Prediction & Pick
In his first year as head coach, Sumrall got off to an impressive start but this is just a tough matchup for him. It would have been difficult before Mensah's transfer but without his quarterback, the odds are entirely against him. Tulane wants to run the ball regardless, but without Mensah, they have virtually no established passing threat. The drop-off from Mensah to Thompson cannot be understated.
Before Mensah's transfer decision, the 9.5-point spread already favored Florida. It has since gone up to 13.5, which is still less than two touchdowns. Given how Lagway and the offense have looked lately, there is no reason to believe a Mensah-less Tulane offense can keep up with them. Lagway is not the only Gator to pick up the pace down the stretch, as running back Montrell Johnson Jr. has topped 90 rushing yards in three of the last four games.
Final Tulane-Florida Prediction & Pick: Florida -13.5 (-115)
