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ACC basketball action continues on Saturday afternoon when Wake Forest (19-7) hits the road to take on NC State (10-16). It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Wake Forest-NC State prediction and pick.
With four wins in its last five games, Wake Forest improved to 11-4 in the ACC with a 77-66 win over SMU on Feb. 15. The win allowed the Demon Deacons to bounce back from a heartbreaking two-point loss to Florida State just three days before. Wake Forest's current run has them fourth in the conference, behind just Duke, Clemson, and Louisville.
NC State recently ended a brutal nine-game losing streak with a 70-62 win over Boston College on Feb. 19. However, since the win, they picked up another loss, falling to rival North Carolina 97-73 on Feb. 19. The Wolfpack's 3-12 conference record has them second-to-last in the ACC, only ahead of 6-20 Miami.
Here are the Wake Forest-NC State College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Wake Forest-NC State Odds
Wake Forest: -2.5 (-102)
Moneyline: -132
NC State: +2.5 (-120)
Moneyline: +110
Over: 135.5 (-110)
Under: 135.5 (-110)
How to Watch Wake Forest vs. NC State
Time: 2 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. PT
TV: ESPN 2
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Wake Forest Will Cover The Spread/Win
With four games remaining in the regular season, Wake Forest is still gunning for a top seed in the ACC tournament. The loss to Florida State was a big blow, but the Demon Deacons have a soft spot to exploit with upcoming games against NC State, Virginia, and Notre Dame before facing Duke.
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Of Wake Forest's seven losses, five have come against ranked teams, with the other two against Florida State and Xavier. A loss to NC State would be their worst of the year by a significant margin. Both Florida State and Xavier are still in the KenPom top 100 at 88 and 51, respectively. NC State remains just outside at 113.
Averaging just 69.6 points per game, the Wolfpack have one of the lowest-scoring and least efficient offenses in the country. They rank 324th with just 67.1 possessions per game and 290th with a 50.9 percent effective field goal percentage. Wake Forest, who ranks 25th with a 96.6 defensive rating, has thrived against similar low-scoring offenses.
Why NC State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Following a big win over SMU, Wake Forest is in a prime letdown spot against the second-worst team in the ACC. While impressive overall, the Demon Deacons have struggled on the road at times with just a 6-4 away record, as opposed to their 13-3 home mark.
While Marcus Hill still leads the NC State offense in points per game, the Wolfpack have recently been lifted by senior guard Jayden Taylor. The former Butler transfer is coming off consecutive 19-point games, while Hill, who has just 10 combined points in the last two games, has struggled. Similar athletic guards have had success against Wake Forest this year, with Chuck Harris, Jeremiah Wilkinson, Jamir Watkins, and Damian Dunn all recently exploiting that hole. Harris is notably Taylor's former teammate at Butler.
The Wolfpack have endured several recent blowout losses, but most have been against high-powered offenses that they simply could not keep up with. The defensive-minded Demon Deacons present a different approach, running at one of the slowest paces in the ACC.
Final Wake Forest-NC State Prediction & Pick
The first time these teams met, Wake Forest took a convincingly 77-59 win at home. Since then, the teams have gone in completely different directions, with Wake Forest going 8-3 and NC State just 2-10 over the past seven weeks. The Wolfpack have nothing to play for at this point of the season, while every game matters for the Demon Deacons' March Madness resume.
Following its disappointing loss to Florida State, Wake Forest leaned on its defense against SMU and limited the highest-scoring team in the ACC to 66 points. Steve Forbes' defense remains one of the best in the country, save for a gaping liability defending the three-point shot. That will not matter in this game with NC State being one of the worst shooting teams in Division I.
As a single-digit favorite, Wake Forest is 8-2 ATS. In similar situations, NC State is just 2-9 ATS as a single-digit underdog. Likewise, Wake Forest is 4-0 ATS as a road favorite with the Wolfpack just 1-5 ATS as home underdogs.
Both teams have hit the under at a frequent pace lately. Wake Forest games have gone under in seven of its last 10, with NC State hitting the under in six of its last 10. Overall, they the under has cashed in 63 percent of their combined games, including the first meeting between them.
Final Wake Forest-NC State Prediction & Pick: Wake Forest -2.5 (-102), Under 135.5 (-110)
