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The first set of 2023 NBA In-Season Tournament games is upon us with the Miami Heat hosting the Washington Wizards at the Kaseya Center. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Wizards-Heat prediction and pick.
The Washington Wizards are 1-3 on the season. They lost their most recent outing to the Atlanta Hawks, 130-121. Kyle Kuzma led the way with 25 points, while Deni Avdija, fresh off a four-year $55 million contract extension, scored a season-high 22 points. Jordan Poole, meanwhile, shot just 5-of-13 from the field 13 points in 20 minutes. Washington's lone victory so far came against the winless Memphis Grizzlies. They lost their three games by an average of 17 points.
Meanwhile, Miami has also struggled out of the gates after an unprecedented NBA Finals run last year. The Heat are just 1-4 on the season, with their lone victory being a 103-102 win over the Detroit Pistons. Miami dropped its previous game versus the Brooklyn Nets, 109-105. Miami blew a 16-point lead in the third quarter to lose for the first time at home this season. Tyler Herro led all scorers with 30 points, while Bam Adebayo notched a double-double with 21 points and 14 rebounds.
Here are the NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Wizards-Heat Odds
Washington Wizards: +8.5 (-108)
Miami Heat: -8.5 (-112)
Over: 225 (-110)
Under: 225 (-110)
How to Watch Wizards vs. Heat
Time: 8:00 PM ET/ 5:00 PM PT
Local TV: Bally Sports Sun, MNMT
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Wizards Could Cover The Spread
As expected, Washington enters this game as significant underdogs. The Wizards are slowly becoming the laughingstock of the league, especially with Jordan Poole's hilarious antics over their last couple of outings. Nonetheless, this team does have the potential to go off on the box score with two lights out scorers in Poole and Kyle Kuzma leading the way.
Poole is off to a poor start in his first year in Washington and is averaging just 17.3 points with paltry shooting numbers of 38.5 percent from the field, including 24.1 percent from three. Kuzma has emerged as the Wizards' leading scorer through the first four games of the campaign. The 6-foot-9 forward is averaging 23.0 points while shooting 49.4 percent from the field. However, he is connecting on just over 23 percent of his threes.
Deni Avdija has been quite a bright spot for Washington and his most recent performance could suggest he may be gaining more confidence, especially after inking that huge extension. The 22-year-old is averaging career-best numbers of 13.0 points and has upped his efficiency with a true shooting percentage of 58.8 percent so far this season.
The Wizards could cover the spread because they are third in shot attempts per game this season, though they're only 16th in field goal percentage. Nonetheless, Washington's ability to generate more shots means more opportunities to score. This is also a result of knack of forcing turnovers from their opponents, where they rank 5th at 17.3 per game.
Washington could still be without Daniel Gafford and Corey Kispert, who are both listed as questionable due to left ankle injuries.
The Wizards are 1-2 against the spread this season and 1-3 on the over/under.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Meanwhile, Miami is still heavily favored in this NBA In-Season Tournament game despite its struggles to tip off the season. They are a bottom-5 team in offensive rating to start the year and rank just 17th in defensive rating.
Nonetheless, Tyler Herro looks like he is on a mission to prove himself after being involved in the Damian Lillard trade rumors through most of the offseason. He also seems keen to prove that he could have made a huge difference had he been available during Miami's run to the Finals. In five games so far, Herro is averaging 26.2 points while shooting 43.2 percent from beyond the arc.
Bam Adebayo is also playing well with averages of 22.3 points and 8.0 rebounds. However, Jimmy Butler has been amiss so far, shooting just 35.7 percent on the season so far for 16.5 points per game.
The offense and defense hasn't been there for Miami to start the season. But they are connecting on their three-pointers (37.6 percent), though on relatively low volume at 33 attempts per game, which ranks 18th in the NBA.
Butler is listed as probable due to right knee tendinitis. Nonetheless, he should be ready to go. Only Caleb Martin will be out as he continues to recover from left knee tendinosis.
The Heat have an identical 1-4 record against the spread and are 2-3 on the over/under so far this season.
Final Wizards-Heat Prediction & Pick
The Heat should be the pick here considering they are just more talented all around than the Wizards. This game could also motivate Jimmy Butler to activate Playoff Jimmy considering these count towards the In-Season Tournament standings.
Go for the under on this one as well as this should be a showcase between two of the worst offenses in the NBA so far this season.
Final Wizards-Heat Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat: -8.5 (-112), Under 225 (-110)
