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This third 2022 World Cup Group E match for Japan and Spain will help determine which teams move on to the Round of 16. Heading into the match, Spain is leading the group with four points and a staggering +7 goal differential. Japan is in second with three points and are at 0 on goal differential. Now, it’s time to continue our World Cup odds series with a Japan-Spain prediction and pick!
If either side can pull out a win, they will move on to the Knockout Stage of the World Cup in Qatar. A draw would put Spain through. And Japan would also move on with that result if Costa Rica and Germany finished deadlocked as well. A win by either Costa Rica or Germany, though, throws the group — and possibly this match — into chaos.
In this World Cup odds piece, we will look at the odds of the match, discuss why Japan could win, how Spain could win, and then make our picks for this Group E showdown.
Here are the Japan vs. Spain World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
World Cup Odds: Japan-Spain Odds
Japan: +700
Spain: -250
Draw: +360
Over 2.5 Goals: -126
Under 2.5 Goals: +104
Why Japan Will Beat Spain
Japan already has a win over one of the top European teams in the 2022 World Cup, so the way they beat Spain is similar to the way they beat Germany on the first day of Group E play.
In that exciting, up-and-down match, Japan weathered an early storm from Germany. The goal came from a bad tackle by Japanese goalkeeper Shuichi Gonda and a penalty kick from Ilkay Gundogan. However, Gonda and the Japanese defense were incredible for the rest of the game. Germany got 26 shots in the game with nine on target, and Gonda stopped all eight from the run of play.
On the offensive side, Ritsu Doan put home an opportunistic rebound and Takuma Asano got behind the German defense off a free kick, and the rest is history.
Spain will be much of the same, with even more ball control and firepower than Germany. If the Samurai Blue can again play stout organized defense and capitalize on a few moments of brilliance at the end of the game when the Spain defense gets tired, they can absolutely pull off another upset at the expense of a European giant.
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Why Spain Will Beat Japan
Spain will win because they simply have so much more talent than Japan. While the Samurai Blue will start players from SC Freiburg, Borussia Monchengladbach, and Shalke 04, Spain will roll out a starting 11 that includes players from Real Madrid, Manchester City, and no less than five from Barcelona.
Aside from that, Spain has already proved it can win big in the 2022 World Cup. In match one, they completely destroyed Costa Rica, pouring in seven goals in 90 minutes.
The more technical answer is that if anyone can break down Japan’s organized defense, it’s the slick passing and ball control of the Spanish National team. Pedri, Gavi, and Sergio Busquets are adept and slicing and dicing even the most compact defenses, and with Alvaro Morata and Ferran Torres’ finishing this tournament, Gonda might actually have to stand on his head to keep them out of the back of the net.
On the defensive side, the Man City duo of Aymeric Laporte and Rodri are adept at being on an island and aren’t afraid to commit a well-timed tactical foul to stop a counterattack in its tracks.
There is a blueprint for Japan to draw or even win this game, but if Spain plays at its best, the game is over before it even begins.
Final Japan-Spain Prediction & Pick
This match is win-and-move-on for both teams, so Spain and Japan will both be pressing hard throughout the match for goals. It should be an exciting match, and before the tournament started, it was one of the highest combined expected goals contests of the group stage, with an xG of 3.97.
For a neutral fan, this should be an excellent game to watch, but in the end, it is Spain’s match to win. In addition to the massive talent advantage, Spain’s players come from big clubs and have played in more high-pressure games around the globe than Japan’s players. That should show up on Thursday.
So, Spain wins the match, and with an xG of almost 4, there should be more than a few goals to go around, so the pick for the over/under 2.5 goals is definitively the over.
Final Japan-Spain Prediction & Pick: Spain (-250); Over 2.5 goals (-126)
