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The Yankees make the trip to Cleveland to face the Guardians! These teams were the top two in the AL, and the Yankees won the first two in the series before the Guardians had a magical comeback in Game 3. It's time to continue our ALCS odds series with a Yankees-Guardians prediction and pick.
Yankees-Guardians Game 4 Projected Starters
Luis Gil vs. Gavin Williams
Luis Gil (15-7) with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched 5.2 innings and gave up six runs on six hits with one walk and five strikeouts in a Yankees loss.
2024 Road Splits: (9-3) 3.43 ERA
Gavin Williams (3-10) with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched 5.2 innings and gave up one run on four hits with two walks and three strikeouts in a Guardians loss.
2024 Home Splits: (0-7) 6.55 ERA
Here are the Yankees-Guardians ALCS Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
ALCS Odds: Yankees-Guardians ALCS Odds
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+142)
Moneyline: -118
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-172)
Moneyline: +100
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Under: 7.5 (-110)
How to Watch Yankees vs. Guardians Game 4
Time: 8:08 pm ET/ 5:08 pm PT
Article Continues Below
TV: TBS/TruTV/Max
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Yankees Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Yankees were the best team in the AL and one of the best teams in baseball this year. Their bats and pitching have been great this postseason. Their bats are 5th out of teams, and then they have the third-best pitching staff. Juan Soto is a huge difference-maker, but Giancarlo Stanton has also been huge for this postseason run. During this run, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe have been huge. Their pitching has been great, thanks to Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt.
The Yankees are starting Luis Gil on the mound, but he has not started a postseason game yet. He was great during the regular season with a 15-7 record, a 3.50 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP. Gil has allowed 60 runs on 104 hits with 77 walks and 171 strikeouts through 151.2 innings. He started in 29 games this year, and the Yankees won 19, with only 10 losses. Gil had a monster year for the Yankees and could be a huge difference against a Guardians team that gained momentum after Game 3.
The biggest key for the Yankees will be their offense. Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Volpe are the leaders in the most important batting categories. Stanton is leading in batting average at .308, home runs at three, RBI at six, and hits at eight. This offense has the ability to completely take over games, and they get a good matchup against Gavin Williams because he struggled this season.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians were great this season and finished just behind the Yankees as the second-best team in the AL. Their bats have been great during this run, while their Picthing has been average, but still top five in the postseason. Brayan Rocchio, Jose Ramirez, Lane Thomas, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez, and Steven Kwan have been key for what the offense has been trying to do this season. Tanner Bibee is the key for the Guardians on the mound because they have not found much consistency outside of him.
The Guardians are starting Gavin Williams on the mound. He has not started this postseason, but during the regular season, he had a 3-10 record, a 3-10, a 4.86 ERA, and a 1.37 WHIP. Williams allowed 42 runs on 72 hits with 32 walks and 79 strikeouts through 76 innings this season. In his 16 starts, the Guardians have gone 4-12 in those games. Williams has had a rough season in Cleveland, but the postseason offers a completely new opportunity for him in this game and it shows the Guardians are putting a lot of trust in him.
The Guardians are a talented team behind the plate because they have depth there. They are third in team batting average at .234 in the postseason. Brayan Rocchio, Jose Ramirez, Lane Thomas, and Steven Kwan all lead the way in the different batting categories. Steven Kwan leads in OBP at .474 and in total hits at 13. Then, Rocchio leads in batting average at .407, Ramirez leads in home runs at two, and then Thomas leads in RBI at nine. They are going to need another big offensive game at home even against a pitcher as good as Luis Gil.
Final Yankees-Guardians Prediction & Pick
The Yankees are the more talented team, but the Guardians should ride that Game 3 magic into this game. The Guardians had a miracle in Game 3, and that should carry over in Cleveland. Gil is a better pitcher than Williams, but the Guardians offense is more trustworthy right now than the Yankees one. I see this game as a toss-up, but the home magic of Cleveland should be the difference with the Guardians covering and eventually winning outright.
Final Yankees-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-172)
