One more sleep until Texas football is back. The Longhorns open the 2023 season at home against Rice. It's 100 degrees and humid all weekend in Austin, so this mid-afternoon kickoff is going to test the wills of both teams. With massive preseason hype once again, is this finally the year the Longhorns deliver? Texas is the favorite to win the Big 12 and has the sixth-highest odds to make the College Football Playoff.
That journey starts Saturday, but what can fans expect to see in Week 1? Here are three Texas football predictions for Week 1:
3. Xavier Worthy starts Biletnikoff campaign on a high note
Xavier Worthy has been NFL-ready for quite some time. As a true freshman, he posted 981 yards and 12 touchdowns. Worthy has truly elite speed and is a crisp route-runner. A great overall athlete, he possesses all of the traits to excel as a receiver at the highest level.
Worthy has the third-highest odds to win the Biletnikoff award, given to the most outstanding wide receiver in the country each year. He comes in behind Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. and Washington's Rome Odunze, who headline the only two receiver rooms definitively better than the Longhorns'.
So, how does he project against Rice in Week 1? Well, Rice wasn't the worst team in college football last year. They finished 5-8 and actually played in a bowl game (unlike Texas A&M). However, the only Power 5 team they played in 2022 was USC in Week 1. The Trojans dropped 66 points with a brand new quarterback, coach, and pretty much a new roster.
Nothing major has changed from a recruiting standpoint since then (except for the addition of former 5-star quarterback J.T. Daniels, but we'll get there). Rice is going to be completely outmatched defensively in this game. The Longhorns are returning 10 of 11 starters and arguably the best returning QB-WR combo in the nation with Worthy and Quinn Ewers.
In 2022 (and even before), the Longhorns notoriously played down to their level of competition. If anything has to change for Texas to be successful in 2023, it's that. It may be foolish to buy into the preseason Texas football hype or to believe that anything will be different this year, but here we are. Let's say Texas actually is as good as advertised this year. That means they won't play down to Rice's level.
So, expect Xavier Worthy to have a monster game and jump out to a commanding early lead in the Biletnikoff award race. His stat line should look something like 8 catches for 125 yards and two touchdowns.
2. Rice finds success in the passing game
If someone in 2018 said J.T. Daniels would be playing for a football team in Houston in 2023 and it wasn't the Texans, they would've been called crazy. But college football is crazy. Daniels was the No. 2 pro-style quarterback in the 2018 class, behind only Trevor Lawrence, who basically graded out as a perfect prospect. From a recruiting standpoint, Lawrence was like Peyton Manning but better.
Daniels left high school a year early to play for USC. He started for the Trojans at 17 years old and has had a wild journey since then. He tore his ACL in the season opener as a sophomore and missed the whole season. Daniels then transferred to Georgia and earned the Bulldogs' starting job for the latter half of the 2020 season. Despite entering the 2021 season as the clear starting quarterback, he struggled with injuries, and Stetson Bennett ultimately replaced him and went on to win a National Championship.
So, Daniels transferred again, this time to West Virginia. In 2022, he was kind of average, throwing for 2,107 yards and 13 touchdowns, but with nine interceptions. He was eventually benched.
So, he entered the transfer portal again, this time to Rice, his first non-Power 5 school. Daniels' history is not impressive and makes one wonder how many chances he can get as a starting QB. However, the talent is still in there somewhere. Top high-school recruits very rarely bust at the college level.
Daniels' top target will be Luke McCaffrey, who totaled nearly 900 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022. Look for Rice to get creative in the passing game and lean heavily on this combination. Daniels' veteran presence will bring things together for Rice and they'll manage at least two touchdowns against the Longhorns.
1. Score prediction
Texas closes out Rice 52-17. The Longhorns' offense is going to roll in Week 1, no question. The offensive line is too strong, the receivers are too talented, and Quinn Ewers is among the nation's top arm talents. Against an inferior opponent like Rice, Texas has to put up points, and they will.
Xavier Worthy will be the player of the game, and we'll see how the Longhorns address their losses in the running back room. The defense will be good enough, but they'll let up a few big plays.
Texas comfortably wins this one at home and heads towards Week 2 on a high note.
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