The Brewers head to Cincinnati holding just a half-game lead in the division now after losing two of three to the Blue Jays. They have now lost five of their last seven games, and the offense has been struggling. They have scored just 16 runs in those seven games, and in the five losses, they have combined for just five runs. In that period the entire offensive output has been limited essentially to two plays. William Contreras and Owen Miller have nine of the 14 RBIs.
While the Brewers are struggling, the Reds are hot and making up ground in the division. They are 26-30 on the season and now just three games back in the NL Central. The Reds lost last night to the Red Sox, snapping a five-game winning streak. They have won seven of their last ten, and the offense is clicking. They have scored 63 runs in their last ten games, good for an average of 6.3 runs per game.
Here are the Brewers-Reds MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Reds Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (-120)
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (+100)
Over: 10 (-105)
Under: 10 (-115)
How To Watch Brewers vs. Reds
TV: Apple TV+
Time: 5:10 PM ET/ 2:10 PM PT
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Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
The Brewers need to figure out some offense to keep their lead in the division. They are bottom five in the league in runs, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Yesterday Kevin Gausman struck out 11 Brewers batters, and the team struck out 12 total times. Rowdy Tellez struck out three times, as did William Contreras. Rowdy Tellez now has just one hit in his last 13 at-bats. He has also hit just .240 over the last month, and today may not see much improvement. Tellez has not hit well against left-handed pitching, which is what the Reds are sending to the mound today. On the year, he is hitting just .231 against lefties with just one home run and two RBIs.
Hitting well this year against lefties is Owen Miller. Miller is hitting great overall, hitting .357 since the start of May. This year he is hitting .333 against left-handed pitching. While Miller does not drive in a ton of runs, he is in a scoring position a lot and has scored 13 times in the last month. William Contreras has also found more success against lefties this year. He is hitting .277 against left-handed pitching with three home runs and six RBIs. While he is not hitting great average-wise as of late, his last ten games have provided some run production. He has seven RBIs with three home runs in his last ten games.
On the mound today will be Corbin Burnes, who has not been as dominant this year. He is 4-4 with a 3.68 ERA on the season. His last outing was one of his better ones on the year. He gave up just one run and four hits over seven innings of work. Still, the team lost as they were only able to score one run in support of Burnes.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds enter this game hot, and they are continuing to improve in most major offense categories. They are now sixth in all of baseball in on-base percentage. They are tenth in batting average while sitting 14th in runs scored this year. This is not a major power offense though, as they sit 20th in slugging and most of their runs come through manufacturing them. They have done plenty of that lately. Over the last week, 12 different players have had RBIs. Jonathan India leads the way for them. He has batted in six with two home runs in the last week. He is hitting just .192 over that period, but has delivered on multiple occasions with runners in scoring position.
Also delivering is Spencer Steer. Steer is hitting .375 over the last week while also hitting two home runs and driving in six. Steers bat has been hot for a while now. He is hitting over .300 for the last month while driving in 19 runs, and scoring 18 times. Also with a great week just completed are Nick Senzel and Jose Barrero. Both of them have five RBIs in the last week. Senzel has been hitting .353 while Barrero is hitting .235.
The Reds will send Brandon Williamson to the mound today. Williamson has made just three starts on the season, and his last two have not been great. Each of them saw him go just 4.1 innings while giving up four runs.
Final Brewers-Reds Prediction & Pick
Corbin Burnes has not been dominant but has still put up some solid outings. Williamson has been bad, but so had the offense for the Brewers. Today, unless the Brewers can figure out how to score runs, they will continue to lose games. The Reds offense is clicking and they will get to Burnes. Take the Reds in this one.
Final Brewers-Reds Prediction & Pick: Reds +1.5 (+100)