We have you covered with our NFL odds series with a Chargers–Patriots prediction and pick.
The fourth primetime game the Los Angeles Chargers played this season was not a pretty one. Their week 12 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens came down to the wire, but the Chargers lost the game to self-inflicted wounds. Three of their final four drives ended with turning the ball over to the Ravens, and because of that, they lost 20-10. This offensive stagnation was detrimental to the team because they played pretty well defensively. Khalil Mack led the charge, who recorded six tackles, two sacks, and one pass deflection. Limiting the Ravens to only 20 points is not easy, so this defense will have plenty of momentum on their side as they head to Foxborough to battle the New England Patriots.
In one of the worst displays of football this season from both teams, the New England Patriots came up empty-handed in week 12. Pinned against the New York Giants, the Patriots scored only seven points and benched quarterback Mac Jones again. He and Bailey Zappe combined for three interceptions, leading to an ugly day for this team. The lone bright spot for them was their productive run game led by Rhamondre Stevenson. He ran for 98 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Given the state of the quarterback room, it is safe to say that he will be the centerpiece of their offense in this week 13 showdown against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Here are the Chargers-Patriots NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Chargers-Patriots Odds
Los Angeles Chargers: -5.5 (-105)
New England Patriots: +5.5 (-115)
Over: 40.5 (-105)
Under: 40.5 (-115)
How to Watch Chargers vs. Patriots Week 13
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET/10:00 a.m. PT
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial), NFL Sunday Ticket if out-of-market
Why The Chargers Could Cover The Spread
Even though the team's success has not followed, Justin Herbert has had one of the better years of his career this season. While the yards and touchdowns have not been as flashy as usual, his consistency in making the smart throws has been. His 70.2 QBR is the second-best rating of his career, and he is on pace to throw for only nine interceptions, which would be the lowest of his career. Herbert may not be one of the three best quarterbacks in the league right now but sized up against the Patriots' options at the position, he will sure look like it on Sunday, especially against a New England pass defense allowing 6.5 yards per attempt and a 66.3% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks. Herbert will be the difference in this one.
Usually, one of the best teams in the league on their home field, but that has not been the case at Gillette Stadium this year for the Patriots. At home, the Patriots are playing some of their worst football. New England is 1-4 against the spread at home this season. While the defense has done its job for the most part, allowing only 23.0 points per game at home, the offense just has not been there. With an offense deteriorating as the weeks progress, it is tough to imagine a different outcome for the Patriots against a Chargers team that needs a win to stay alive for the playoffs.
Why The Patriots Could Cover The Spread
As mentioned earlier, even though the offense has not been there for this team, the defensive presence has—specifically, the run defense. New England allows only 3.4 yards per carry, which is tied for the lowest average in the league in this category. This team is on a roll against the run as well. Last week against one of the best running backs in the league, Saquon Barkley, the Patriots allowed him to run for 46 total yards and kept him out of the endzone. With a 70% chance of rain as of right now and a high of only 49 degrees, the Chargers game plan could revolve heavily around the run, which would play into the hands of the Patriots.
While turnovers have been a major issue for the quarterbacks, that has not been the case for the run game. Ball security between Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliot has been executed to near perfection this season. On 276 attempts, the Patriots only have one rushing fumble. If the Patriots lean on their ground game, with these two at the helm, they can cover and maybe even win outright.
Final Chargers-Patriots Prediction & Pick
With the playoffs getting closer and closer, every game becomes a must-win for the teams sitting outside the top seven. At a 4-7 record, the Los Angeles Chargers have not seen much go their way this season and desperately need a win. Although winning on the road in Foxborough in December is always hard, no matter the Patriots' roster, I am going with the Chargers in this one. The loss of Joey Bosa hurts, but this team still holds one of the most underrated defensive units in the NFL. Combining that with the massive difference in quarterback play between these teams gives the Chargers the edge to win by six or more. Give me the Chargers against the spread in this one.
Final Chargers-Patriots Prediction & Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 (-105)
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