PFL Week 5: Clay Collard vs. Mads Burnell continues on the main card with the main event fight between Clay Collard and Mads Burnell in the lightweight division. Collard was able to get back on track and kickstart the new season with a second-round TKO victory meanwhile, Burnell didn’t get off to a good start in his PFL debut when he was submitted in the second round. With that said, check out our PFL odds series for our Collard-Burnell prediction and pick.

Clay Collard (25-12) came up short last season in his bid to become PFL champion after taking the loss to two-time champ Olivier Aubin-Mercier. Since then in the first PFL vs. Bellator merger, Collard was finished by former Bellator featherweight champion AJ McKee but then he was able to get back on track when he finished former Bellator lightweight champion Patricky Pitbull. Collard will be looking to continue his winning ways when he takes on Mads Burnell to secure his spot in the playoffs.

Mads Burnell (8-2) got his shot at this year’s PFL season after winning the 2023 PFL Europe tournament. Things didn’t go quite as well as they did last year when he was knocked out in the first round of his debut against Dovletdzhan Yagshimirov. Nedoh will be looking to get back on track when he takes on 2023 PFL winner Impa Kassanganay.

Here are the PFL 5 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

PFL 5 Odds: Clay Collard-Mads Burnell Odds

Clay Collard: -295

Mads Burnell: +235

Over 2.5 rounds: -185

Under 2.5 rounds: +155

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Why Clay Collard Will Win

In the highly anticipated main event of PFL 5 on June 21, 2024, Clay Collard is set to face Mads Burnell in a lightweight clash. Collard has the edge to secure a victory over Burnell in this matchup.

Collard’s striking prowess is a significant advantage. With 12 knockouts in his MMA career, Collard has demonstrated his ability to end fights with his hands. His aggressive style and high-volume striking can overwhelm opponents, as seen in his recent TKO victory over Patricky Freire. Burnell, while a competent striker, has shown vulnerabilities in his stand-up game, particularly against opponents who can maintain distance and control the pace.

Collard’s experience in high-stakes fights gives him an edge. He has faced top-tier competition in both MMA and boxing, including notable wins over Anthony Pettis and Jeremy Stephens in the PFL. This experience under pressure situations will be crucial against Burnell, who is still adjusting to the PFL format after a recent submission loss to Michael Dufort.

Collard’s takedown defense and ability to keep the fight standing will be pivotal. Burnell excels in grappling, with nine submission victories. However, Collard’s solid defensive wrestling, honed through years of MMA and boxing, should help him neutralize Burnell’s ground game and keep the fight in his preferred striking range. Clay Collard’s striking superiority, experience, and defensive skills position him as the favorite to defeat Mads Burnell at PFL 5.

Why Mads Burnell Will Win

Mads Burnell is set to face Clay Collard in a lightweight showdown. Burnell has the tools to secure a victory over Collard in this matchup on Friday night.

Burnell’s grappling expertise is a significant advantage. With nine submission victories in his career, Burnell has proven to be a formidable force on the ground. His ability to control opponents and secure submissions will be crucial against Collard, who has shown vulnerabilities in his ground game in past fights.

Burnell’s well-rounded skill set makes him a versatile threat. While known for his grappling, Burnell has also developed solid striking skills, which he can use to set up his takedowns. His ability to mix up his attacks and keep opponents guessing will be key against Collard, who relies heavily on his striking. Burnell’s adaptability in the cage allows him to exploit his opponent’s weaknesses effectively.

Burnell’s strategic approach and fight IQ give him an edge. He is known for his ability to implement game plans effectively, adjusting his tactics as needed during fights. This strategic mindset will be crucial against Collard, who tends to be more aggressive and less calculated in his approach. Mads Burnell’s grappling prowess, well-rounded skills, and strategic acumen position him as the favorite to defeat Clay Collard at PFL 5.

Final Clay Collard-Mads Burnell Prediction & Pick

This should be a good scrap for the main event for PFL 5 this Friday night. Clay Collard will be looking to secure his spot in the playoffs with a victory meanwhile, Burnell will need an early finish to clinch his first PFL playoff birth. This is a binary fight where if this fight stays on the feet it’s Collard’s fight to lose but if Burnell is able to implement his grappling he should take full control of this fight. Ultimately, while Burnell is a potent grappler Collard has faced far better grapplers in his time and has done a good job defending as he should be able to defend the takedowns or scramble back to his feet and pick apart Burnell to get the job done and secure his spot in the PFL playoffs.

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Final Clay Collard-Mads Burnell Prediction & Pick: Clay Collard (-295), Over 2.5 Rounds (-185)