The Air Force Falcons (12-9) visit the No. 25 New Mexico Lobos (18-3) on Friday night. Action tips off at 10:00 p.m. ET. Below we continue our College Basketball odds series with an Air Force-New Mexico prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Air Force has lost two consecutive games and sits at 3-5 and in seventh place in the Mountain West. The Falcons covered 62% of their games while 57% went over the projected point total. New Mexico is coming off a double-overtime loss at Nevada but had previously won four straight games. The Lobos covered 63% of their games while 60% went over. This will be the first of two meetings between the teams. New Mexico has won three of the last four meetings within the last two seasons, although Air Force covered twice during that span.
Here are the Air Force-New Mexico college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Air Force-New Mexico Odds
Air Force: +12.5 (-110)
New Mexico: -12.5 (-110)
Over: 143.5 (-110)
Under: 143.5 (-110)
How To Watch Air Force vs. New Mexico
TV: CBS Sports Network
Stream: CBS Sports Online
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/ 7:00 p.m. PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Air Force Could Cover The Spread
Air Force has had an up-and-down season thus far. After finishing their non-conference schedule 9-4, they lost their first three conference matchups. The Falcons then proceeded to win three straight conference matchups but have now lost two in a row heading into tonight. As a result, Air Force is a sizable underdog tonight both in betting markets and within advanced metrics. The Falcons rank No. 162 in KenPom and No. 153 in NET. They've gone just 1-5 in Quad 1 and 2 matchups and hold a subpar 2-3 record in Quad 3 games. Because of that, Air Force does not currently project to make the NCAA Tournament.
Air Force isn't a very impressive team but they run a sound offense and rarely make mistakes. The Falcons are slow and methodical as they rank 345th in tempo. That being said, they rank third in the conference in assists and average a minuscule 11.6 turnovers per game. Their biggest strength lies in their ability to hit the outside shot as they average the fourth-most threes per game in the conference with 8.3.
Their ability to hit the outside shot will surely give them a chance to cover tonight and that starts with sophomore Jake Heidbreder. The 6'5″ guard is the only player on their team to average double-digit points. For the season, he averages 14.3 PPG as well as 2.2 threes per game.
Why New Mexico Could Cover The Spread
Although they are coming off a loss this week, their double-overtime performance at Nevada was incredibly impressive as Reno is one of the toughest places to play in the Mountain West. They had played especially well in recent games, picking up a key road win over then-23rd-ranked San Diego State and a home win over Boise State. Notably, the Lobos ran through their non-conference schedule which included a win over now-22nd-ranked Saint Mary's. For a mid-major conference team New Mexico fares well within the advanced metrics. The Lobos rank No. 43 in KenPom and No. 29 in NET. They hold a strong 5-1 record in Quad 1 and 2 matchups although they do have two Quad 3 losses. As a result, New Mexico currently projects as a No. 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
New Mexico is a team built on its high-flying offense. The Lobos lead the Mountain West in scoring and rank 11th nationally with 81.5 PPG. They play at the 22nd-fastest pace and as a result, get a ton of easy shots. New Mexico ranks 11th in the country in field goal percentage as they shoot 49%. Additionally, New Mexico is dominant on the glass with a conference-leading 39.4 RPG.
Because the Lobos score so many points, they have three players who average over 15 points per game. Junior Jamal Mashburn Jr. leads the Mountain West with 19.3 PPG. Mashburn is an efficient scorer who shoots 45% from the floor and is coming off a season-high 33 points. Mashburn has been on a tear of late as he's eclipsed 20 points in seven of his last eight games.
Point guard Jalen House is right behind Mashburn, however, as he ranks second in the conference with 17.3 PPG and 4.8 APG. He is an absolute pest on defense, leading the conference with 2.7 steals per game.
For as good as their guards have been, New Mexico's bigs are the backbone of their team. Morris Udeze leads the conference in rebounding with 8.5 RPG in addition to his 15.7 PPG. Fellow forward Josiah Allick is right behind him, averaging the second-most rebounds in the MW with 8.3 RPG.
Final Air Force-New Mexico Prediction & Pick
New Mexico is in an entirely different class than Air Force and I expect them to bounce back in a big way after their disappointing loss earlier this week.
Final Air Force-New Mexico Prediction & Pick: New Mexico -12.5
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