The Virginia Cavaliers take on the Michigan Wolverines. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Virginia Michigan prediction and pick.

The Virginia Cavaliers and Michigan Wolverines have authored distinctly different stories to start the new college basketball season, but how they end those stories will be a much bigger point of fascination.

Virginia won the 2019 national championship and then got knocked down a few pegs. The Cavaliers were still an NCAA Tournament-level team but weren't the juggernaut they were in the late 2010s. Then last season, they didn't even make the NCAA Tournament. Virginia coach Tony Bennett has crafted elite defenses on a consistent basis, but his offenses have sometimes been very clunky and impotent. Last season, the offensive impotence reared its ugly head, as did defensive regression. The vulnerabilities of Virginia's playing style combined with an erosion of the team's core strengths led to a brutal season. Entering the new campaign, one wondered if the familiar Virginia formula could return.

The early indications are strongly positive.

Virginia beat Baylor and Illinois in Las Vegas over a week ago, making a very strong statement about its readiness not only for the coming season, but to ascend back to the top of the ACC alongside Duke and North Carolina. The Baylor win in particular showed that the Virginia offense has been revitalized. Baylor is a top-flight defensive team, and yet Virginia scored over 50 points in the second half of that game to score a moderately comfortable victory; it wasn't a nail-biter. Virginia was able to back up that win over Baylor with another conquest of Illinois two days later. If the Baylor win seemed like a one-off, Virginia wiped away that notion with the Illinois victory. Tony Bennett appears primed to get Virginia back to the big time after a brief post-national championship lull.

Michigan is in some ways trying to do what Virginia is working to achieve. The Wolverines were a No. 1 seed in the 2021 NCAA Tournament but barely made the Big Dance last year. Michigan wants to get back to that top seeding tier, much as Virginia intends to do. The Hoos, though, have attained early-season successes in pursuit of that goal. Michigan has not.

The Wolverines have a 5-1 record, so it might seem that they're having a good season, but they have not played very well. They got crushed by 25 points against Arizona State. They were lucky to beat Ohio at home in overtime. Their wins have all come against lower-tier opposition. Virginia will present an entirely new challenge to coach Juwan Howard's team, which seems to require a longer evolution process than Howard or the fan base hoped. This is a big test for the Wolverines and a measurement of how quickly they can change the trajectory of their season.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Virginia-Michigan College Basketball odds.

College Basketball Odds: Virginia-Michigan Odds

Virginia Cavaliers: -3.5 (-110)

Michigan Wolverines: +3.5 (-110)

Over: 128.5 (-110)

Under: 128.5 (-110)

Why Virginia Could Cover the Spread

The Cavaliers have multiple high-end wins and look like one of the three best teams in the ACC, also a top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan looks like a bubble team through its first six games. Virginia has quickly meshed on the court and Michigan has not. These teams are in different stages of their development.

Why Michigan Could Cover the Spread

Michigan has had some bumpy and rocky times, but the Wolverines are gearing up for this big home game. They haven't been great through the first three weeks, but they know how big this game is for them. In college sports, we see this all the time: mediocre teams, or good teams playing mediocre ball, gather their focus and their energies for a game they have circled on the calendar. They play far better than the previous few weeks suggested they would. Michigan will play that kind of game here.

Final Virginia-Michigan Prediction & Pick

Michigan will probably give Virginia a good test, but the Cavaliers are playing at a much higher level. Early in the season, that should matter. Take UVA here.

Final Virginia-Michigan Prediction & Pick: Virginia -3.5