The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Check out our college football odds series for our Illinois Nebraska prediction and pick.
The Illinois Fighting Illini are having the time of their lives. They control their fate in the Big Ten West Division. If they win out, they win the division championship and would earn their first-ever ticket to the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis this December. No one saw that coming. Wisconsin and Iowa were generally regarded as the teams to beat in the West this season, with Minnesota and Purdue also being in the conversation. Illinois football has struggled for a long time. Even if some analysts might have been quietly optimistic about this team and what it could achieve, they certainly didn't predict this scenario, in which Illinois steadily rose to the top of the West before the end of October, with Wisconsin having fired coach Paul Chryst and Iowa being a total disaster. It is a huge opportunity for head coach Bret Bielema to return to the Big Ten title game for the first time since he coached Wisconsin in the 2012 game. His opponent in that game was Nebraska, the same school he will face this Saturday. Nebraska's coach 10 years ago was Bo Pelini. The Huskers fired him and have struggled to find anyone as good as him. That's not a commentary on how great Pelini was; he was a fairly ordinary coach. However, Pelini at least delivered half-decent results. The Huskers have been flatly bad under Pelini's successors, and they are now looking for a new permanent head coach to restore Nebraska football to glory.
Illinois' rise in the Big Ten this year has been based primarily on the Fighting Illini's defense. Coordinator Ryan Walters has made himself into a hot coaching candidate at Colorado, where he went to school as a football player. Walters has turned Illinois into a smothering, consistently strong defensive force, beating Iowa 9-6 and limiting Wisconsin to only 10 points in Madison earlier this season. Illinois has not allowed more than 23 points to any opponent in 2022, and more than 14 points to only one foe. This defense has been remarkably dominant. For perspective, the Illini have allowed fewer 20-plus-point games (1) than the Georgia Bulldogs (2) have this year. It will be fascinating to see if Bielema can retain Walters for 2023, or if his rising star jumps for a head coaching job at Colorado or another school with an opening.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Illinois-Nebraska College Football odds.
College Football Odds: Illinois-Nebraska Odds
Illinois Fighting Illini: -7.5 (-105)
Nebraska Cornhuskers: +7.5 (-115)
Over: 50.5 (-105)
Under: 50.5 (-115)
Why Illinois Could Cover the Spread
The Illini defense is a force of nature this season. Big Ten opponents need something special to solve Ryan Walters' gang of 11, and there's nothing particular about Nebraska which suggests or indicates that the Huskers have the secret sauce needed to pull it off. It would rate as a surprise if Nebraska becomes the second team to score at least 20 against the Illini this year. If Illinois does hold Nebraska to 14 points or fewer — as it has done for every opponent except Indiana (back on Sept. 2) — it should cover the spread.
Why Nebraska Could Cover the Spread
The Illinois story is magical, but now the Illini have a target on their back, and they are going into one of the louder road venues in the Big Ten, Nebraska's Memorial Stadium, where the fans always pack the seats and cheer for their Huskers. If Nebraska can avoid a bad first quarter, the Huskers can settle into the game, keep it close, and create scoreboard pressure on the Illini in the fourth quarter. Illinois could get nervous and crumble. The Illini are not used to being the heavyweight in their division. That could affect this game.
Final Illinois-Nebraska Prediction & Pick
The Illinois defense deserves the benefit of the doubt. The Nebraska team does not. It's as simple as that.
Final Illinois-Nebraska Prediction & Pick: Illinois -7.5
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