The San Diego State Aztecs are set to face the UNLV Rebels this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our San Diego State-UNLV prediction, odds, and pick.

San Diego State is in the driver's seat in the Mountain West Conference's West Division. The Aztecs just defeated the Nevada Wolf Pack, 23-21, in a season-defining November game. Had SDSU lost, Nevada would have had the inside track to the division title. Nevada is now highly unlikely to win the division since it has lost to both San Diego State and Fresno State. SDSU is trying to fend off Fresno State in the division. A loss here, or next week to Boise State, would give Fresno State the division title if the Bulldogs win out. Fresno State owns the head-to-head tiebreaker against both SDSU and Nevada. The college football odds say that San Diego State will be favored against Boise State next week. If the Aztecs do what they are supposed to, they will win the division and advance to the Mountain West Championship Game in early December.

San Diego State butters its bread on defense. Keep that in mind when making a San Diego State UNLV pick. The Aztecs have held opponents to 14 points or fewer in six different games this year, including an overtime game. They have allowed more than 24 points in regulation time only once, to Fresno State (their one loss). Coach Brady Hoke has cultivated a lights-out defense which gives its offense a large margin for error. As long as the offense isn't terrible — merely average — the Aztecs' defense does enough of the heavy lifting to win.

UNLV is only 2-8 this season, but as you contemplate a San Diego State UNLV pick, you need to realize that the Rebels have been consistently competitive. They lost to Fresno State by only one score. They lost to unbeaten UTSA by only one score. They lost to Mountain West Mountain Division leader Utah State by four points. They are coming off consecutive wins over New Mexico and Hawaii. UNLV doesn't finish games well, but it usually does not get blown out.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds:

College Football odds: San Diego State-UNLV Odds

San Diego State: -10.5 (-110)

UNLV: +10.5 (-110)

Over: 40.5 (-115)

Under: 40.5 (-105)

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Why San Diego State Could Cover the Spread

The Aztecs have a smothering, overwhelming defense. Physical, fast, well-coached, and alert, the Aztecs fly to the ball and don't get caught out of position. This is the anchor of the team and a dependable part of Brady Hoke's larger operation. This is not an erratic defense. You might look at the 33-31 win over Utah earlier this season as a bad defensive performance. That's not true. San Diego State held Utah to 10 points through the first 50 minutes. Utah caught fire in a hurry-up offense and scored two late touchdowns to force overtime. Utah scored another touchdown in OT. 

If San Diego State plays its best defensive game, it won't even need to score tons of points. It can win 20-6 or 24-10.

Why UNLV Could Cover the Spread

The San Diego State offense does not make it easy for the Aztecs to bury their opponents. This offense does just enough to win. It doesn't win by large margins: 17-10 over Hawaii, 19-13 over San Jose State in overtime, 20-14 over Air Force. UNLV's penchant for playing good teams close — a lot like Nebraska, if you have studied the Cornhuskers this season — has been a regular feature of the Rebels' games, not an occasional component. SDSU's best-case scenario is 24-6 or 27-10. A more realistic scenario is 20-13 or 16-10.

Final San Diego State-UNLV Prediction & Pick

Again, UNLV is a Mountain West version of Nebraska, regularly losing but just as regularly playing close, hard-fought games. San Diego State should win, but the Aztecs' offensive limitations will not make this game a breezy joyride. The Aztecs' defense will do what it normally does, but the offense won't soar. San Diego State 17, UNLV 10, in a slugfest.

Final San Diego State-UNLV Pick: UNLV +10.5, under 40.5