The SMU Mustangs are set to face the Houston Cougars this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our SMU-Houston prediction, odds, and pick.

The SMU Mustangs were extremely fortunate earlier in the season to beat Louisiana Tech. They won on a Hail Mary against an opponent they should have beaten by a much larger margin. Since then, however, SMU has played the way head coach Sonny Dykes expects his team to play, scoring a series of relatively convincing wins to remain unbeaten and set up a fascinating stretch run to the AAC season. Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai has given SMU stability and dependability at quarterback, while defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt has given Dykes the right complementary piece on his coaching staff. Dykes didn't have an excellent defensive coordinator at his previous head coaching stop with the California Golden Bears. Leavitt is a big reason SMU is still unbeaten.

Houston suffered a bad loss to Texas Tech early in the season, but the Cougars have been spotless since then. Dana Holgorsen, formerly the head coach at West Virginia, has put UH in position to contend for the AAC Championship Game. The winner of this game has a very good chance of facing Cincinnati for the conference title and — potentially — the Group of Five championship, which brings with it a New Year's Six bowl berth. (Obviously, Cincinnati and coach Luke Fickell hope to get a College Football Playoff berth, not just an NY6 bid, but that's a separate conversation.)

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the SMU-Houston odds:

College Football odds: SMU-Houston Odds

SMU: +0.5 (-108)

Houston: -0.5 (-112)

Over: 61.5 (-114)

Under: 61.5 (-106)

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Why SMU Could Cover the Spread

The game is basically a pick'em. In other words, the spread-based bet and the money line bet are nearly the same. When asking why either team will cover the spread in this game, one is essentially asking which team will win outright. That's what the SMU-Houston odds say.

Why will SMU beat Houston? Defense. Jim Leavitt has his Ponies flying to the ball. The Mustangs don't have a dominant defense, but it is a responsible defense. The Louisiana Tech game (37 points allowed) was easily the worst performance of the season, but in every other game, the SMU defense has made timely plays to increase the offense's margin for error. Houston noticeably struggled to move the ball in the second half of last weekend's overtime win against East Carolina. SMU has to feel good about its chances of keeping the Cougars under wraps. Consider this when you make an SMU-Houston prediction.

Why Houston Could Cover the Spread

The East Carolina squeaker will be used as a reason to discount Houston's chances, but that game was delayed several hours by lightning. Hardly any fans were in the stadium when that game was completed. UH was robbed of a true home-field advantage. No one should assign too much weight to what happened versus ECU. 

This is the game Houston had circled on its schedule months ago. It's the Cougars' Super Bowl this season. Holgorsen will have his team ready to play its best in this showdown. An SMU team which wobbled against Louisiana Tech and was less than airtight against Navy could easily fall off the ledge if it plays anything less than high-quality football. Include this thought in your SMU-Houston pick.

Final SMU-Houston Prediction & Pick

It's easy to look at the shiny toys on the SMU roster, and at an offense which just scored 55 against Tulane, 41 against South Florida, and 42 versus TCU. Yet, the Ponies' defense helps the offense and gives Sonny Dykes' team “complementary football.” Houston's offense has had its moments of brilliance this season, but the Cougars looked ordinary for a large portion of their narrow escape against East Carolina. It's true that Houston will play with a lot more energy this week, and will have a full house to cheer on the Cougars, but SMU has the better defense and superior talent. In this SMU-Houston prediction, that's the decisive element in this old-school Southwest Conference throwback game.

Final SMU-Houston Pick: SMU +0.5