Last year Texas A&M football was one of the most disappointing in the nation. The win total was set at 8.5 and there were hopes of SEC title odds, but they fell short, winning just five games. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Texas A&M football over/under win total prediction and pick.
After an opening win against Sam Houston, everything was expected to be just fine for the Aggies. Then, they were upset at home the next week by Appalachian State. They rebounded with two straight wins over ranked opponents. They took care of Miami (FL), before hitting the road and taking care of tenth-ranked Arkansas. Then the wheels fell off. It was three straight road losses starting with Mississippi State. The Aggies then came home hoping to right the ship but fell to Ole Miss and Florida. Texas A&M finished the season strong though, taking out UMASS before a major upset of LSU in the final game of the season.
The offense is what let them down. Injuries to key players, poor performances at quarterbacks, and sitting 101st in the nation in points per game led to changes in the coaching staff. Bobby Petrino was brought in, as he was stolen from UNLV just weeks after he accepted a job there. The run defense was also one of the worst in the nation, plus the defense had a very poor pass rush. Enter another coaching change, as DJ Durkin was brought in to run that side of the ball. Now with a completely re-tooled, albeit controversial coaching staff, Texas A&M looks to rebound from a poor 2022 season.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Texas A&M Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 7.5 wins: -176
Under 7.5 wins: +142
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Why Texas A&M Can Win 7.5 Games
The return of Conner Weigman, who played well in the last few games of the season, in combination with receivers Ainias Smith, Evan Stuart, and Moose Muhammad III, should lead to a lot more points being scored this year. The Aggies will open with a win over New Mexico, but then comes their first real test, as they visit Miami (FL). The Hurricanes will be looking to make a turnaround from their disaster of a season last year. Cristobal has amassed talent in Miami, but is it enough to win games? This is the game that will most likely decide the over or the under on the win total. If they win, the Aggies will have four non-conference wins and just need four in conference play. If they lose, the Aggies will need five in conference play, which may be tough to come by.
After the Miami game is a home date with ULM that will be a win. Then they have their first two SEC games. They are home against Auburn and on the road against Arkansas. Texas A&M is going to be favored in both of them and must get wins in both to hit the over on the win total. With Alabama and Tennessee next, the Aggies will drop the next two before home against South Carolina. Again, they will be favored and will get a win. This leaves them in a situation where they just have to win one of the two games against the Mississippi schools. Mississippi State will be the easier one as they are home favorites.
With three non-conference wins, and victories over Mississippi State, Auburn, South Carolina, and Arkansas, the over hits against Abilene Christian. Even with a loss in the last game to LSU, it is an 8-4 season.
Why Texas A&M Can Not Win 7.5 Games
Texas A and M cannot slip up. They went just 3-4 in games in which they were favorites last year. This year, ESPN FPI places them as favorites in seven to eight games. The one game that the books may not favor in that group is the game at Miami (FL). When they go 3-4 against the teams they are expected to beat again this year, they will come nowhere near eight wins.
The Miami game may be the one to decide if the over hits. Miami outgained Texas A&M last year, both on the ground and through the air. If Miami can finish just one more drive in this one, they will get the win. Unless Texas A&M can pull a major upset like they did last year, this game will end their hopes of the over-hitting.
The most likely upset come against Ole Miss. Ole Miss brings back a lot overall, and this game is at Ole Miss. With back-to-back games against the two Mississippi schools, it is possible to hit that upset, and then fall to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs had a stellar defense last year, and while they are losing parts, Zach Arnett has done a good job building new talent.
Final Texas A&M Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Aggies start the season 1-0 and then beat Miami on the road for win two. After a win over ULM, the Aggies suffer the upset. Auburn and Hugh Freeze take out Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies. A bounce-back against the Razorbacks is next before losses to Tennessee and Alabama. South Carolina provides the second SEC win, before a loss at Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss. Back-to-back wins follow before the Aggies' date with LSU. With a bowl birth secured, but no shot at the SEC title game, the Aggies lay down. Take the under on this one.
Final Texas A&M Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 7.5 (+142)