The Utah State Aggies are set to face the San Diego State Aztecs this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our Utah State-San Diego State prediction, odds, and pick.
The preseason prognosticators did not have this matchup. People who study college football odds and are contemplating a Utah State San Diego State pick were preparing to have a Mountain West Conference Championship Game between Boise State and Fresno State, or maybe Air Force and Nevada, possibly Boise State and defending champion San Jose State. Nope. Utah State came out of nowhere to win the Mountain Division in the Mountain West. San Diego State was a contender for the West Division championship, but no one saw this coming: SDSU went 11-1 and answered nearly every challenge thrown its way. It's a fascinating conference title game between two teams which have overachieved this year. This is good food for thought when sizing up a Utah State San Diego State prediction.
Two teams which were not viewed as being likely to play for a conference title will both cherish this opportunity and play with passion. Neither coach is in the coaching carousel as a target for other programs needing to fill vacancies. Both teams are happy. Their coaches are on top of their games. This should be a fun one to close out the Mountain West season and lead us into the bowl season.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds:
College Football odds: Utah State-San Diego State Odds
Utah State: +6.5 (-110)
San Diego State: -6.5 (-110)
Over: 49.5 (-110)
Under: 49.5 (-110)
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Why Utah State Could Cover the Spread
The Aggies have been defying expectations all season long. Head coach Blake Anderson came from Arkansas State and has turned around the program faster than anyone possibly could have imagined. Utah State lost to Boise State, the team everyone expected to win the Mountain West's Mountain Division, but it upset Air Force 49-45 on the road, the result which wound up being decisive in the division race. In an interesting plot twist, Utah State is here in the Mountain West Championship Game because San Diego State, the team it is facing, knocked off Boise State. The result prevented a three-way tie in which Air Force would have won the division, not Utah State. At any rate, if you are thinking about a Utah State San Diego State pick, Utah State has been an underdog all year. Why would the Aggies stop now? As long as their defense doesn't crater against San Diego State's limited offense, they have a very good chance to win.
Why San Diego State Could Cover the Spread
The Aztecs have the best defense in the Mountain West Conference and have proven it all year. They shut out Boise State in the second half of last week's game to beat the Broncos and seal a division title. San Diego State trailed 16-3 but then roared back to beat Boise State comfortably, a sign of the Aztecs' resilience and second-half prowess under Brady Hoke, who was voted the 2021 Mountain West Coach of the Year. The Aztecs received enough production from their passing game against Boise State to lead people to believe that they will find enough offense against Utah State as well. USU is not as physical as Boise State is. The Aztecs can win this game in the trenches and dominate at the point of attack.
Final Utah State-San Diego State Prediction & Pick
Utah State is a feel-good story, but San Diego State has had the best team in the Mountain West all year. The cream will rise to the top here. That means the Aztecs will prevail.
Final Utah State-San Diego State Pick: +6.5
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