Next Tuesday (Oct. 31) will mark the release of the first official College Football Playoff (CFP) poll. However, this is just the beginning of the chaos that is likely to ensue. Currently, there are six undefeated teams in the top 25, along with seven one-loss teams that constitute the 13th highest-ranked teams in the country, as per the AP Poll. The composition of the CFP poll may differ slightly, depending on how voters assess the current season. But by the time the final poll is released, could there be a one-loss team like Alabama, Oregon, or Texas still in contention for the playoff?
Texas Football
Many believed that the Longhorns football team was virtually guaranteed a spot in the Big 12 Championship, and then the CFP, in their farewell season in the conference. However, Oklahoma had different plans in the Red River Rivalry game. They upset the Longhorns with a late game-winning drive by Dillon Gabriel, securing a 34-30 victory. Now, it's the Sooners in the driver's seat not only for the Big 12 title game but also the CFP. Nevertheless, Texas football might still have a say in this.
Like Alabama and Oregon, the path is clear for the Longhorns. They are by no means out of the CFP race, but avenging their loss to Oklahoma is crucial, as the Sooners need to reach the Big 12 title game.
Oklahoma may not need to worry about quarterback Jalon Daniels when they face Kansas in Manhattan. Daniels was injured against Texas a few weeks back. However, they still have Oklahoma State in Bedlam to deal with, which is surprisingly ranked 3rd in the Big 12 and has only one conference loss. After that, they face West Virginia at home, BYU on the road, and TCU at home to end the regular season. The Sooners could either win out maybe suffer only one loss and still get to the Big 12 Championship. But a single loss would hurt their chances of making the CFP, given that none of their remaining opponents are ranked. This is why Texas needs Oklahoma to keep winning.
Texas football also doesn't have any remaining ranked teams on their schedule. However, challenges may come from tough opponents like Kansas State, BYU, or Texas Tech. TCU and Iowa State could also pose problems on the road, although it seems unlikely. Texas' CFP chances rest on Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, but the Longhorns must remain focused and avoid any more losses.
Oregon Football
Among the one-loss teams, Oregon has the toughest remaining schedule. They start this week against No. 13 Utah, with two of their next three games against ranked teams, including No. 24 USC. Their regular season ends with a clash against No. 11 Oregon State.
Similar to Texas football, Oregon football will rely somewhat on their Pac-12 rival that defeated them just two weeks ago in an exciting game. Oregon's three-point loss to Washington placed the Huskies at the top of the Pac-12. A rematch is likely if both teams win out, but that won't be easy.
Both teams face USC, Utah, and Oregon State. Washington ends the regular season against a challenging Washington State team. Facing these top conference teams and in-state rivals to end the season makes the run to the Pac-12 Championship much more intriguing for both.
However, Oregon doesn't have to rely on Washington to make it back to the title game, as Texas does with Oklahoma. If the Pac-12 can prove its worth, and if Oregon wins out and secures the Pac-12 title, they could find themselves in the CFP.
Alabama Football
Alabama has only one remaining ranked opponent in No. 15 LSU for the upcoming week. Despite the Crimson Tide's occasional struggles this season, their sole loss was to then No. 11 Texas, a non-conference team. The Crimson Tide remain undefeated in the SEC, and that's what counts. However, the question arises: how much do SEC conference games matter this season? The SEC appears weaker this year, resulting in a more balanced conference and the sport of college football as a whole now being full or parity.
Alabama has played a role in this by being far less dominant than in previous years. To survive, they must face challenges like LSU, led by the talented Jayden Daniels, who has significantly contributed to the Tigers wins this season. Also, the Iron Bowl against Auburn, known for its upsets, is another obstacle.
If Alabama can overcome these challenges and potentially face Georgia in the SEC Championship game, they would still need the Bulldogs to keep winning. Beating a likely top-4 undefeated Georgia football team is their ticket to the playoff.
The verdict
Considering the schedules of Alabama, Oregon, and Texas, along with their opponents and the conference championship games they must make and win, Texas appears to have the best chance of reaching the CFP. Texas football has the easiest remaining schedule and has already achieved the best win among the three teams by defeating a then No. 3 Alabama. However, Texas is probably hoping that Alabama's ranking keeps rising, yet also not surpassing their own.
Oregon football, however, should be the automatic to leap into the CFP should they win out and win the Pac-12 title game, especially if it's against an undefeated Washington team. They would have potentially four top-25 wins and if Washington were to jump into the top-5 or better, a win could propel them into the playoff for sure.
Alabama hopes rely within their conference, which, again, seems blasphemous saying considering all the years of SEC dominance. Would a win over a one-loss or even two-loss Georgia team in the SEC title game be enough to put Alabama football back in the CFP? This year, that seems doubtful.
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