Two of the top teams in the A-10 face off as Dayton visits Richmond. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Dayton-VCU prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Dayton comes into the game sitting at 19-3 on the year, and 9-1 in conference play. They opened the year 3-2, with losses to Northwestern and Houston, but then went on a 13-game winning streak. Their next loss would be their first of the conference year, losing on the road to Richmond. It was a low-scoring first half, as Richmond 20-15 at the half. In the second, Dayton would keep it close but would fall 69-64. Since then, thye have won three straight games, with only the game against St. Bonnaventure being within single digits.
Meanwhile, VCU is 15-8 on the year while sitting 7-3 in conference play. After losing their first conference games of the year, VCU has won seven of their last eight games. The only loss for them was to St. Bonvaneture on the road by five. Since then, thye have won by 11 over Richmond, and then 15 on the road over Fordham. These two have not played yet in conference play but will face again at Dayton in the last game of the year.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Dayton-VCU Odds
Dayton: -1.5 (-104)
Moneyline: -118
VCU: +1.5 (-118)
Moneyline: -102
Over: 134.5 (-115)
Under: 134.5 (-105)
How to Watch Dayton vs. VCU
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
TV: ESPN2
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Dayton Will Cover The Spread/Win
Dayton comes in sitting 24th in the nation in KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings this year. They have been solid on offense this year, sitting 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency, while sitting 69th in adjusted defensive efficiency. While Dayton sits 124th in points per game, they are some of the best in the nation at shooting and moving the ball. Dayton is 12th in the nation in effective field goal percentage, while sitting sixth in the nation in three-point percentage. Dayton is also 25th in the nation in assists to made field goal ratio this year.
The leader of this offense is DaRon Holmes II. He comes into the game shooting 54.8 percent this year with 19.7 points per game. The forward is primarily an inside scorer, while also playing well on the inside in general. Holmes has 7.6 rebounds per game this year. Second on the team in points is Nate Santos. Santos is also shooting well from three this year. He comes in with 11.7 points per game while shooting 43.4 percent from three this year. Saton also adds 6.6 rebounds per game this year. Further, Koby Brea is playing well. He comes in with 10.7 points per game this year while leading the team with 62 three-pointers made this year. He is shooting 48.7 percent from three this year.
Dayton also gets help from Kobe Elvis and Javon Bennett. Elvis comes in with just 9.8 points per game but has 3.6 assists per game this year. Bennett comes in with 9.2 points per game, but he has 3.7 assists per game this year, which leads the team.
Dayton is also solid on defense this year, coming in 17th in the nation in points allowed per game. While they do sit 198th in rebounds per game. They allow just a 46.6 percent effective field goal percentage, which is 34th in the nation. DaRon Holmes is also a huge part of the defense, coming in with 2.3 blocks per game this year. Javon Bennett also adds 1.3 steals per game this year.
Why VCU Will Cover The Spread/Win
VCU is ranked 88th in KenPom's adjusted effects rankings this year. They sit 114th in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting 68th in adjusted defense efficiency this year. They are 183rd in the nation in points per game this year, but sit 91st in the nation in effective field goal percentage. Max Shulga leads the offense this year. He comes into the game with 15.1 points per game this year, while he is shooting 41.3 percent from three. He is also second on the team with 3.7 assists per game this year. Joe Bamilsile comes in second on the team in points with 12.8 points per game this year but has played in just 13 games so far this year. Rounding out the top scores is Zeb Jackson, who comes in with 11.8 points per game, while also having 3.8 assists per game this year.
In the rebounding game, VCU is 140th in the nation in rebounds per game this year. They are just outside the top 125 in both defensive and offensive rebounding rates this year. Toibu Lawal is leading the way here. He comes in with 5.6 rebounds per game, while also adding 7.5 points per game. Christian Fermin is next, with 4.9 rebounds per game, while adding six points per game of his own.
On defense, VCU ranks 32nd in the nation in opponent points per game this year, while sitting fifth in opponent effective field goal percentage. Further, thye are tenth in the nation in opponent assists per game this year. Jason Nelson and Zeb Jackson have been a major part of this. Both of them come into the game with 1.3 steals per game this year. Meanwhile, Christian Fermin has 1.7 blocks per game on the season.
Final Dayton-VCU Prediction & Pick
Dayton has done their fair share of winning this year, but they have also been solid against the spread. On the road this year, thye are 5-1-1 against the spread. In conference games, they are 6-4 against the spread this year. VCU is just 7-7-1 against the spread at home this year, and in their only chance to cover as a home underdog, they failed to cover. Dayton is the better team here, and while VCU needs a win to try to make a case for the tournament, they will not find it in this game.
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Final Dayton-VCU Prediction & Pick: Dayton -1.5 (-104)
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