The Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves have a high-profile pitching matchup coming their way on Saturday when Brandon Pfaadt and Max Fried face off at Truist Park. The Diamondbacks started the season 4-3, after taking three of four from the Rockies but then dropping two of three to the Yankees. They play their first road game on Thursday in game one of four against the Braves. The Braves won two of three over the Phillies to start the season, then split a two-game set on the south side of Chicago against the White Sox. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Diamondbacks-Braves prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Brandon Pfaadt proved a lot of doubters wrong in last year's playoffs. Many people were concerned about the Diamondbacks' pitching depth after Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. However, Pfaadt was integral to Arizona's run to the World Series. Pfaadt returned to that form in his first start of the season, going five innings with one earned run and six strikeouts against the Rockies. The Diamondbacks have a favorable schedule upcoming, as they face the Rockies and Cardinals over the next week.
Max Fried did his part in last year's postseason, winning his start against the Phillies before the Braves lost in four. The Braves took care of the Phillies in Fried's first start, but it wasn't thanks to his pitching. Fried went 2/3 of an inning, surrendering three earned runs, three walks, and two hits. The Braves have some big series on the horizon, with National League East battles against the Mets and Marlins taking them into next Sunday.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Braves Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-118)
Moneyline: +168
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (-102)
Moneyline: -200
Over: 9 (-114)
Under: 9 (-106)
How to Watch Diamondbacks vs. Braves
Time: 7:20 PM ET/4:20 PM PT
TV: ARID, Bally Sports South
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win
Brandon Pfaadt was a big reason for the Diamondbacks National League pennant last season, shutting down some elite offenses. He will need to do it again in this game as the Braves are mashing against right-handed pitching. However, the Diamondbacks have been even better against left-handed pitchers. Arizona is batting .357 against lefties, averaging 8.3 runs per nine innings. Their on-base percentage is a whopping .427.
The Diamondbacks' bullpen has performed well this season, owning a .75 advantage in the ERA department over the Braves. Their opponents have a .229 on-base percentage and are walking fewer than one walk per game. If the Diamondbacks keep it close or hold a lead after the half of the game, they have a big advantage with their relievers.
Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Diamondbacks aren't the only team with a strong split against their opposing handedness in this game. The Braves are batting .336 against right-handed pitching this season, averaging 8.1 runs per nine innings. They are also hitting 1.2 home runs per game.
Final Diamondbacks-Braves Prediction & Pick
This game and series will be an evenly-matched battle between two teams sitting near the front of the National League pennant race. It's hard to predict which team will win on either night, with some interesting pitching matchups. Many people will take the under in this game due to the recent performances of Fried and Pfaadt, but both offenses are in a good position for the over.
The two teams combine for over 14 runs per game, and offenses batting over .335 and eight runs per game when facing the respective pitching handednesses. This may not be as fun of a night for the starting pitchers as people believe, and this game has a good chance of reaching at least nine runs.
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Final Diamondbacks-Braves Prediction & Pick: Over 9 (-114)
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