Two teams on the cusp of playoff elimination face off on Sunday Night Football. The Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys both need a win desperately. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Vikings-Cowboys prediction and pick.
The Vikings are 5-8 on the year, which places them in last place in the NFC North. They broke a four-game losing streak in their last game facing the Washington Commanders. The Vikings dominated the game. They led 14-0 heading into the halftime break, and would hold the Commanders without a point, winning the game 31-0. J.J. McCarthy broke out in the game, throwing three touchdown passes in the victory. The Vikings will be eliminated with a loss in this game, but could be eliminated before the game. If the Bears or Lions win their game, the Vikings will be eliminated.
The Cowboys cannot be eliminated in this game, but have just a 16 percent chance to make the playoffs. That will plummet with a loss in this game. The Cowboys are 6-6-1 this year, and recently had a winning streak broken. They played last Thursday against the Detroit Lions, allowing Jared Goff to throw for 309 yards and a touchdown. They also let Jahmyr Gibbs rush for three touchdowns in the game.
NFL betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Vikings vs. Cowboys Odds
Vikings: +5.5 (-110)
Cowboys: -5.5 (-110)
Over: 47.5 (-112)
Under: 47.5 (-108)
Vikings vs. Cowboys Key Injuries
Vikings- S Theo Jackson (Neck- Questionable), DT Levi Drake Rodriguez (Neck- Questionable), CB Jeff Okudah (Concussion- eligible to come off IR), RB Ty Chendley (Knee- eligible to come off IR)
Cowboys- LT Tyley Guyton (Ankle- Questionable), CeeDee Lamb (Concussion- Questionable), DE Jadeveon Clowney (Hamstring- Questionable), CB Treveon Diggs (Knee- eligible to come off IR), RT Ajani Cornelius (Knee- Eligible to come off IR)
Vikings vs Cowboys Betting Trends
– The Vikings are 5-8 ATS this year. They are 2-3 ATS on the road this season.
– The Cowboys are 6-6-1 ATS this year. They are 3-2-1 against the spread at home this season.
– The Vikings are 1-5 against the spread when an underdog this year.
– The Cowboys are 2-4 ATS when a favorite this season.
– The over is 7-6 this year in Vikings games, but the under has hit in five straight Vikings games.
– The under is 9-4 this year in Cowboys games, although the over has hit in three of the last four Cowboys games.
Keys to Vikings vs Cowboys
For the Vikings, it all is going to come down to J.J. McCarthy and the passing offense. The offense has struggled as a whole this year, sitting 26th in the NFL in points per game and 29th in yards per game. They are 24th in the running game, but 30th in the passing game. McCarthy rocked out against the Commanders, but overall has not been good. The former first-round pick has played in just seven games, throwing for 1,092 yards and nine touchdowns. He has also thrown ten interceptions. He has just two games with a QBR over 50. One was the first game of the year, where he threw for 143 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. He also ran in a score. The other was last week, when he threw for 163 yards and three scores. He needs to repeat that performance in this game.
The Cowboys are the perfect defense to do that against. They are 31st in the NFL in opponent points per game while sitting 29th in opponent yards per game. They are better against the run, sitting 20th in the NFL, allowing 123.5 yards per game. Regardless, the Cowboys are 32nd against the pass, allowing 255.2 yards per game this year. They also struggle to get pressure on the quarterback or force turnovers. This is the best situation for McCarthy to get it going.
For the Cowboys, it is all about getting the running game going. Minnesota is fourth against the pass this year, but 22nd against the run. The defense is 12th overall in opponent points per game while sitting eighth in opponent yards per game. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are third in the NFL in points per game and first in passing. Still, they are 16th in the run.
Javonte Williams leads the way for the Cowboys. He is seventh in the NFL with 1,022 yards, and he is sixth in the league with nine rushing touchdowns. Regardless, Williams has scored just once on the ground in the last five games and has not broken 100 yards since the middle of October. He has also averaged under four yards per carry each of the last two contests. This is a game Williams needs to be solid in, but his history suggests otherwise.
Vikings vs. Cowboys Prediction and Pick
Neither team has been good this year. The Vikings have been bad on offense all year and have struggled to score. Still, the Cowboys have struggled on defense. For all the good of the Cowboys' offense, they have struggled some in the red zone. The Boys score touchdowns on just 58.82 percent of their red zone possessions, which is 15th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Vikings are ranked third in the NFL in opponent red zone touchdowns.
Both teams also struggle with giving the ball away. The Cowboys give the ball away 1.4 times per game, which is 23rd in the NFL. The Vikings do it twice a game, which is 32nd in the NFL. The Vikings are in a spot where they could be eliminated. If they are still alive heading into this game, they could win it. If not, they will keep it close. Still, mistakes by both teams are going to keep the scoring low, making the best play on this game being on the total and the under.
Final Vikings vs. Cowboys Prediction and Pick: Vikings +5.5 (-110) and Under 47.5 (-108)
