Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf is one of the most imposing figures in the league, but will an increase in target competition and the potential for Geno Smith to regress make Metcalf's fantasy football outlook a little cloudier than you might think?

Let's get into it.

Why Seahawks WR DK Metcalf could crush his ADP

Metcalf currently has an average draft position (ADP) of 34.0 and is the WR15 taken in PPR drafts, according to FantasyPros.

After finishing as the WR5 in 2020 and the WR9 in 2021, Metcalf finished last year as the WR19 in fantasy football, in large part due to his low touchdown total (6) after scoring in double-digits in each of the previous two seasons.

There's reason to expect some positive touchdown regression this year for the Seahawks star, as Metcalf was tied for second in the league in red zone targets last season with Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Opportunity and talent are the two things we care about the most in fantasy football, and Metcalf has both.

The case for DK Metcalf to outplay his current late 3rd round fantasy ADP is pretty simple. It starts with the touchdown regression, but it also factors in Geno Smith getting another year in Seattle's system to grow more comfortable, Seattle opening up the playbook more with 3-WR looks, and the Seahawks offense on the whole reaching new heights with an infusion of young talent.

If Seattle leans into passing more often in neutral situations, which has slowly been happening already, Metcalf stands to benefit even more. On a per-route basis since 2021, Metcalf ranks in the top five of targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns among wide receivers, according to Pro Football Focus.

It's not hard to imagine Metcalf returning a top-5 season at the position, mainly because we've seen it before. Metcalf is in his prime, and with his insane combination of size and athleticism, anything feels possible.

Why DK Metcalf could struggle to justify his ADP

The case against DK Metcalf has more to do with the talent around him than anything else. Metcalf has always shared looks with Tyler Lockett, seemingly trading off big performances while forming one of the best perimeter tandems in the NFL.

The issue is that with Smith-Njigba in the mix, Metcalf and Lockett could both see fewer targets overall. Last season, Metcalf accounted for 40.7% of the Seahawks' wide receiver targets and Lockett accounted for 38.0%, leaving just 21.3% for all of the other wide receivers on the roster combined, according to Pro Football Focus.

If Smith-Njigba is the real deal out of the slot, he's going to naturally take some volume away from both Metcalf and Lockett, who have never had to share the field or share touches with another dynamic receiver. It's important to remember that what's best for the team isn't always best for fantasy.

There's also some concern that Geno Smith, who came down to earth a bit in the second half of the season last year after a hot start, might not be able to support a true fantasy WR1. Smith may throw less contested balls Metcalf's way if he has other options in the passing game, and rookies Smith-Njigba and running back Zach Charbonnet could end up becoming safety blankets.

If you trust Smith to repeat or even better last year's performance, it's wheels up for Metcalf. But if you expect Smith to take a step back and Smith-Njigba to be a real weapon right away, fading Metcalf at his current ADP makes sense.

Final consensus on Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf's 2023 fantasy outlook

SDK Metcalf's ADP feels just about right. Receivers in their physical prime who have already proven capable of top-5 finishes shouldn't fall outside of the third round, and that's where Metcalf is routinely going. Seattle is on the right track with becoming more pass-heavy (12th in pass rate last season), and the early-season schedule (LAR, DET, CAR first 3 games) for the Seahawks could build some serious confidence for Geno Smith and momentum for the offense as a whole.

Even if his overall receptions and yards take a hit with increased target competition in Seattle, Metcalf's touchdowns should spike back to double-digits, making him a solid WR1/2 candidate in fantasy football this season.