Super Bowl 57 is now in the rearview mirror, which means the attention of the NFL is focused on the 2023 offseason. One team that figures to be very busy this offseason is the Miami Dolphins, as they will aim to reach some bigger goals in the 2023 season and beyond.
Last season, the Dolphins finished the regular season with a 9-8 record and clinched a playoff spot for the first time since 2016. While they ended up losing 34-31 to the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card Round, it was still a wildly encouraging campaign.
Miami had a solid first half of the season, but they fell apart down the stretch of the season. The Dolphins had a five-game losing streak in the second half of the season that coincided with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion issues.
The Dolphins will enter the offseason with a lot of work to do. According to Spotrac, they are currently about $12.7 million over the salary cap and have more than 20 unrestricted free agents set to hit the open market. That group includes the team’s leading rusher in Raheem Mostert and leading tackler in Elandon Roberts.
Based on what the Dolphins showed with a healthy Tagovailoa in 2022, they could be just a few players away from becoming a true title contender next season. For that to happen, though, the front office may need to complete several complicated moves. With that being said, let's take a look at four bold predictions for the Miami Dolphins this offseason
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4. The Dolphins trade up for a first-round pick
With such a complicated salary cap situation, the best possible avenue for the Dolphins to address their needs this offseason would be through the 2023 NFL Draft.
The problem is that they won't have a first-round pick this year. Miami forfeited its first-round selection and a future third-rounder as punishment for violating the league's anti-tampering policy, which happened when they had conversations with Tom Brady and his agent while the quarterback was still under contract with the New England Patriots.
Because of that gaffe, the highest pick the Dolphins have in the draft right now is their second rounder, which is the 51st overall pick of the draft. This means that instead of selecting in the middle of Day 1, Miami will have to sit out the first day of the draft before bringing in a new player.
Miami could benefit from trading back into the first round, and that is exactly what they will end up doing. Expect the front office to package their second rounder plus some Day 3 selections in an effort to get a first-round. The Philadelphia Eagles' 30th and Kansas City Chiefs' 31st selections could be on the trade block, as Philly has a top-10 pick and the Chiefs just won the Super Bowl.
3. The Dolphins only bring back only one of Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert
One of the areas the Dolphins certainly need to address this offseason is the running back position. Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin are all free agents in 2023. That leaves Alec Ingold as the only ball carrier under contract, and he's a fullback.
Mostert and Wilson led the way in the backfield for Miami for most of the season, but it was Mostert who led the team with 181 carries for 891 yards and three touchdowns last season, while also hauling in 31 receptions for 202 yards and two more scores.
Wilson only played in eight games with the Dolphins after getting traded from the San Francisco 49ers, but still had solid numbers, finishing the season with 84 carries for 392 yards and four scores, one of which came through the air. He finished second in most of the team's rushing categories, trailing only Mostert.
With so many pending free agents, it says here that Miami will only end up re-signing one of Wilson and Mostert. This means that the team will have to find a replacement with starting-level talent in the free-agent market or the draft, adding another item to their to-do list for the offseason.
2. The Dolphins will sign a backup quarterback with starting experience in the NFL
It's no secret that the Dolphins' season was seriously impacted by Tagovailoa’s bout with concussions. In the four games he missed in the regular season, Miami went 1-3 as Teddy Bridgewater and rookie Skylar Thompson earned two starts each.
With so much uncertainty surrounding Tagovailoa's status and Bridgewater hitting free agency, Miami needs to sign a quarterback for the 2023 season. Preferably, this new addition would have some experience actually playing in the NFL under their belt.
With Bridgewater heading out the door and Thompson still needing to develop, Miami will end up bringing in a backup quarterback with prior starting experience. Some intriguing guys who fit the bill are Taylor Heinicke, Cooper Rush, Andy Dalton, and Joe Flacco. All of these guys have been starters before and could fill in if Tagovailoa's injury problems persist. Plus, a veteran such as Dalton and Flacco could serve as a mentor for the young quarterback.
1. The Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa do not agree on an extension
Staying with the quarterback situation, the Dolphins have a wildly important offseason decision to make. This is the first offseason where the front office and Tagovailoa can negotiate and potentially reach a deal on a rookie-scale extension.
The former Alabama Crimson Tide passer was having a breakout campaign before his concussion problems popped up. He finished the season completing 64.8% of his passes for 3,548 yards and 25 touchdowns against eight interceptions. When Tagovailoa was the starting quarterback, the Dolphins went 8-5.
However, due to his injury history, Miami and Tagovailoa won't agree on a contract extension this offseason. With many questions surrounding Tagovailoa's health and current injury status, the Dolphins would likely prefer to see if he can still play at a high level before committing to a long-term deal, which would make the 2023 season very important for Tagovailoa.
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