As the 2022 MLB season begins to wind down, the award races are beginning to really heat up. While teams continue to joust for playoff positions, the players themselves are fighting to pick some individual awards as well. One of the tighter races around the league is the AL Cy Young race between Dylan Cease and Justin Verlander, and it could end up being decided in the final few weeks of the season.
Throughout the second half of the season, Cease and Verlander have been neck-and-neck, and it doesn't look like one of these guys truly has a big lead over the other currently. Cease has quietly emerged as the ace of the Chicago White Sox pitching staff, while Verlander has returned after what was nearly a two year layoff to prove he hasn't missed a beat.
With neither guy having a significant lead over the other, it's fair to assume this race will come down to how good they are over their final few starts of the season. With that in mind, let's look at two reasons why Cease will end up winning the AL CY Young award over Verlander for the 2022 season.
2. Dylan Cease hasn't gotten the same type of support as Justin Verlander
Heading into the 2022 season, Cease wasn't even supposed to be Chicago's best starter. Realistically, he was probably expected to be their third starter behind Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn. But Giolito has had an ERA above five for a couple months now, and Lynn has made only 17 starts on the season. That has forced Cease to pick up the slack, and to his credit, he has done that and more.
Cease's numbers paint the picture of a pitcher who has taken a massive step forward this season (14-6, 2.06 ERA, 206 K, 1.07 WHIP). For reference, Cease's ERA last season was 3.91. The level of improvement there is clearly quite large, and without Cease, the White Sox would be in a lot of trouble. For as good Verlander has been this season, you can't really say the Astros would be in the same boat, especially considering they are staying afloat with Verlander currently injured.
Framber Valdez has been on an absolute tear this season, and the final three guys in the rotation (Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and Cristian Javier) have all been better than both Giolito and Lynn have been behind Cease. Heck, the Astros traded Jake Odorizzi, who had a 3.75 ERA in 12 starts, because they simply had no need for him.
Not only has Houston's pitching staff around Verlander been better, but the lineup and fielding behind him has been better too. Chicago's lineup has failed to reach expectations for much of the season, meaning Cease has had to do most of his work on the mound on his own. The White Sox also have the third worst fielding percentage in the MLB, which hasn't helped Cease much either.
From a pure numbers perspective, Cease trails Verlander. But when you take away the advantages Verlander has over Cease, it's clear that Cease has been much more valuable to his team than Verlander has this season. If you switched their teams, Cease would probably be pitching better than Verlander, and while that's admittedly a hypothetical, it has to at least be considered when voting for the award.
1. Dylan Cease has been more consistent than Justin Verlander
While Verlander has been a bit better as a whole on the season than Cease, Cease has been a more consistent presence for the Sox than Verlander has been for the Astros, and that may ultimately sway voters to give Cease the award over Verlander.
While Cease has only thrown ten more innings than Verlander, he's made four more starts than him, and those totals should only continue to increase with Verlander currently on the injured list. It's tough to argue that Cease would win this award had Verlander avoided his recent calf injury, but the more time Verlander misses, the better a chance Cease has at winning this award.
Verlander is currently working towards returning this weekend, but even then, his margin of error will be much smaller than Cease's. If he gets hit hard in one of his final starts, his numbers won't look that much better than Cease's. When you consider the fact Cease already has a lead in games pitched and strikeouts over Verlander that he doesn't seem set to relinquish, Cease's case for winning begins to come into focus.
Cease's path to winning the award becomes much easier with each day that Verlander misses. If Verlander can return this weekend, it would basically turn this race into a dead heat over the final few weeks. Even though Verlander has been better by the numbers, Dylan Cease has had a bigger impact for the White Sox this season, and if he can continue to dominate over his final few starts of the season, the AL Cy Young award will be his.
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