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The final week of the 2024-25 NBA season is set to be a bloodbath in the Western Conference standings. Although the Oklahoma City Thunder are sitting pretty at the top, everyone else is still fighting to claim their actual playoff spot. The Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors, and many others find themselves in a tight race that could come down to the final day of the regular season.
This is a very historic playoff race. Aside from the superstars on each of these rosters making history every time they take the court, what we've seen from the Western Conference standings is historic in its own right.
With four games remaining on their schedule, the Lakers are sitting comfortably as the 3-seed in the West. However, a cold stretch and losing streak to end the year could result in them falling into the play-in tournament because of how tight these standings are.
In fact, this is the first time in league history under the current playoff format, which began in 1983, that those ranked 4-8 by record in a conference are within a half-game of each other 78-plus games into a season, per league release. It is also the second time that teams ranked 3-8 in a conference are within two games of one another this late into a season.
Every game played this upcoming week is vital to every team's playoff path. One win and one loss can drastically change the NBA playoff picture, which ultimately influences which team goes on to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals.
Of course, all of these teams bunched up also means tiebreakers will help determine playoff positioning in the Western Conference standings.
Understanding the tiebreaker rules and how they work is essential to solving the puzzle that is the West this season.
For two teams tied in the standings, head-to-head record takes precedence, followed by if one team is a division leader. Then it goes to the win-loss division record if the two teams are in the same division, followed by conference win-loss percentage. If these two teams are still tied after this, then the league looks at each team's win-loss percentage against playoff-eligible teams in their conference.
While we could see a two-way tie in the standings, it's much more likely there will be a three-, four-, or possibly even five-team tie after 82 games. That is where everything can get very confusing.
Much like the two-team tiebreakers, the NBA determines these multi-team tiebreakers by first looking at which teams won their division. From there, the next tiebreaker takes head-to-head record into account, followed by division record if the teams are in the same division. The conference record is then evaluated, followed by each team's win-loss percentage against playoff-eligible teams in their conference.
The bottom line for all teams still fighting for position in the West standings is to win every game down the stretch. With some set to play one another, plenty of movement is expected, and what the standings look like entering the final week won't be what the standings look like to end the season.
With this said, let's dive into each team's playoff outlook, their tiebreaker scenarios, and where they currently reside in the Western Conference standings.
2. Houston Rockets (52-27)
Out of all the teams still tied up in the Western Conference standings race, the Houston Rockets should feel the most comfortable. After locking up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Stephen Curry in back-to-back games, the Rockets' defense has reached new heights.
Houston has won 15 of their last 17 games, and compared to the likes of Golden State and Los Angeles, this team doesn't revolve around a few star players. The Rockets are a deep team with athletic, lengthy players who can guard virtually any positioning, making them dangerous against other top teams.
All three of the Rockets' remaining games this season are against title-contending threats: the LA Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, and Denver Nuggets. These first two games will be on the road.
After the Rockets defeated the Warriors on Sunday night, it looks very likely that they will ultimately claim the 2-seed in the West. However, if they lose their final three games and the Lakers win out, then Houston will fall one spot to the 3-seed.
Highest possible seed: 2-seed | Lowest possible seed: 3-seed
3. Los Angeles Lakers (48-30)
Much can happen over the Lakers' final four games of the season. Aside from having to play the Rockets again, who they recently defeated by six points, Los Angeles will face Oklahoma City on Tuesday night. The Lakers just trounced the Thunder 126-99, which is why one can expect Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. to come out with a lot of fire in this second game, especially since it's their final home game of the season.
Matchups with Dallas, Houston, and Portland are also on the Lakers' schedule.
If the Lakers sweep these four games, then they would claim the 2-seed in the West. On the flip side, one loss could have a domino effect that is contingent on the outcomes of other games around the conference.
The easiest way to evaluate the Lakers right now is by looking at their tiebreakers. Los Angeles currently owns the tiebreakers over Denver and Minnesota since they lead the Pacific Division, and they also own head-to-head tiebreakers over the Clippers, Warriors, and Grizzlies.
Essentially, the Lakers could be tied in the standings with any team at the end of the season, but their tiebreakers will give them the higher seed. That is why it continues to look likely that Los Angeles will have home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
As long as they don't lose more than two of their final four games, the Lakers should claim the 4-seed at the least.
Highest possible seed: 2-seed | Lowest possible seed: 8-seed
4. Denver Nuggets (47-32)
One of the main reasons we have such a tight race in the Western Conference standings is due to what has transpired with the Denver Nuggets. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon have all appeared on the Nuggets' injury report in recent weeks, resulting in this team dropping seven of their last 10 games. Since the start of March, Denver is just 8-11.
All of a sudden, the Nuggets are a half-game ahead of four teams in the 5-seed to 8-seed positions. It is not out of the realm of possibilities for Denver to go from being the 2-seed in the middle of March to falling into the play-in region of the standings after their final three games.
The Nuggets are on a four-game losing streak ahead of Wednesday's game against the Sacramento Kings. To make matters worse, Murray's status moving forward is uncertain due to a hamstring injury. There are reasons to be concerned about Denver, especially with games against Memphis and Houston remaining.
As far as tiebreakers go, the Nuggets own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Warriors. They won't be able to get the tiebreaker over the Lakers, and they would lose the division tiebreaker to Minnesota if they were tied with them at the end of the season. Memphis could also seize the tiebreaker over Denver with a win on Friday.
The only other tiebreaker that the Nuggets will own is over the Clippers, assuming they don't finish with a better record than the Lakers and Warriors to win the Pacific Division.
Denver controls their fate at this point. If they win their final three games, they will be either the 3-seed or 4-seed. However, one loss in their final three games will result in the Nuggets falling out of home-court advantage and possibly being in danger of slipping into the play-in tournament region of the standings.
Do not be shocked if the Nuggets are the biggest surprise in this Western Conference pile-up and fall to the play-in region.
Highest possible seed: 3-seed | Lowest possible seed: 8-seed
5. LA Clippers (46-32)
Keep a very close eye on the LA Clippers because of how red-hot they have been in recent weeks. With Kawhi Leonard healthy and playing his best basketball of the season, the Clippers have gone from the play-in region of the standings to being on the verge of claiming home-court advantage.
The Clippers have won 14 of their last 17 games. This team has surrendered more than 100 points only once in their last four contests. After facing the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday, LA will end the season with games against Houston, Sacramento, and Golden State.
Since LA is one of the four teams tied at 46-32 entering the final week of the season, it's hard to point exactly to what the Clippers need to happen. Winning is obviously step one, but the Clippers do not control their fate for rising to the 3-seed or 4-seed and claiming home-court advantage. To do so, they will need to win and get help from the Lakers and/or Nuggets losing.
To avoid the play-in tournament, the Clippers must win their remaining four games or see Minnesota lose since LA doesn't own the head-to-head tiebreaker over them. With this said, the Clippers own head-to-head tiebreakers over Golden State and Memphis.
The final game of the season against the Warriors will tell the tale for the Clippers' playoff positioning, especially since that factors into a potential four-team tiebreaker for head-to-head win percentage against tied teams.
If the Clippers can get past the Spurs and then defeat the Kings, they should be able to avoid the play-in tournament. Then again, Golden State and Minnesota finishing with three wins in four games would knock LA down to the 7-seed.
Highest possible seed: 3-seed | Lowest possible seed: 8-seed
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6. Golden State Warriors (46-32)
With the Warriors picking up wins over the Grizzlies, Lakers, and Nuggets, a loss on Sunday against the Rockets doesn't sting as bad as it could have. While the Dubs obviously wanted to win this game too, they got by a four-game gauntlet in a good position.
Golden State is still in contention for home-court advantage in a first-round series, and out of all the teams in the 4-8 region of the Western Conference standings, the Warriors are in the most favorable spot because of their remaining schedule.
While a game on the road against the Phoenix Suns seemed challenging months ago, this should no longer be a contest. Phoenix has seen their chances of making the play-in slip away, and they would need to win out to have a chance to do so. Kevin Durant has also missed three straight games with an ankle sprain, making his return this season unlikely.
Assuming the Warriors get past the Suns with a win, they will play San Antonio and Portland before closing the season at home against the Clippers. Golden State will be favored in these three games against Phoenix, San Antonio, and Portland, and three wins would certainly allow them to avoid the play-in tournament.
Four wins put the Warriors in a position of power to possibly move up to the 4-seed, especially if Denver were to lose two more games.
Tiebreakers are not necessarily in Golden State's favor, as the Lakers, Nuggets, and Clippers all own the head-to-head matchups against them. Those are the three teams the Dubs are chasing right now, which is why they will need a little bit of help in addition to handling their own business to get either the 3-seed or 4-seed.
Highest possible seed: 3-seed | Lowest possible seed: 8-seed
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (46-32)
The Timberwolves are in a weird spot. While they own tiebreakers over the Nuggets and Clippers, they lost the season series against Golden State and Memphis.
The good news for Minnesota is that they have won 14 of their last 17 games and have a favorable schedule to end the season. After going on the road to play Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday, the Timberwolves will play their final road game against the Grizzlies.
Both these games are winnable for Anthony Edwards and Co. since the Bucks are without Damian Lillard and the Grizzlies have been struggling lately. Minnesota then closes out the season against Brooklyn and Utah, two teams tanking for the top pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
It is realistic to believe that the Timberwolves can run the table and finish the final week of the season with a 4-0 record. Should this happen, Memphis will be play-in tournament bound, and the Wolves will avoid the play-in since the Clippers and Warriors play in the final game of the season.
The only way Minnesota could possibly claim a top-four spot in the standings is if they go 4-0 and get some help from others. In this scenario, the Wolves would need the Clippers to beat the Warriors in the final game of the season to claim the West's 4-seed.
Highest possible seed: 3-seed | Lowest possible seed: 8-seed
8. Memphis Grizzlies (46-32)
Not much is trending in the right direction for Memphis at the moment.
However, all of this can change with wins over Minnesota and Denver. The Grizzlies already own the tiebreaker over Minnesota, and they can claim one over the Nuggets with a win against them in the final week of the season. That could ultimately be the difference between avoiding the play-in and facing a win-or-go-home scenario.
At this point, all the Grizzlies need to do to avoid the play-in is win against Minnesota and Denver. Should they accomplish this, Memphis will be in a favorable position pending the results of other games to be played between the Warriors, Clippers, Nuggets, and others.
The Grizzlies' problem is that they are 4-7 against the Warriors, Timberwolves, Clippers, and Nuggets combined. That could hurt them in a four-team or five-team tiebreaker scenario, which is why they are where they are currently in the standings.
Highest possible seed: 3-seed | Lowest possible seed: 8-seed
What happens in a 4-team or 5-team tie?
The biggest question everyone is asking heading into the final week of the regular season revolves around what happens if multiple teams end up tied with the same record. Well, individual head-to-head tiebreakers don't immediately matter in this scenario, as the head-to-head record as a whole is what comes into play.
Entering the final week of the season, the Clippers and Warriors are currently the 5-seed and 6-seed, respectively, because their records against the four-team collective are the best.
Golden State and LA are 6-3 against the rest of those at 46-32 this season, but the Clippers own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Warriors this season and have a better division record. Since Minnesota is 4-5 against the three other teams compared to Memphis being 4-6, the Timberwolves end up getting the 7-seed even though the Grizzlies beat them in two of three games this season.
So, what does this mean if all of these teams are tied at the end of the season?
The math here is still incomplete since Golden State will play LA again. Minnesota will also face Memphis, and the Nuggets will also play Memphis. All these results will impact the overall record, conference record, and potential individual tiebreakers for teams — all of which could factor into a multi-team tiebreaker scenario.
Only the Lakers and Nuggets control their fates for home-court advantage in the playoffs. If they can win out, they will maintain their current positions. However, one loss changes the trajectory of the Western Conference standings and playoff picture.
One loss could decide the fate of two teams being forced to earn their playoff spot via the play-in tournament. Buckle up, because this is going to be a very wild ride to end the 2024-25 season.
