Subscribe
Follow Us
The preseason AP Top 25 has come out, and Oklahoma football finds itself ranked 18th in the first poll. This marks 26 straight seasons that the Sooners have been ranked in the Top 25 of the AP Poll. As Brent Venables enters his fourth season in Norman, can Oklahoma make a run in the SEC, or will they finish worse than their initial ranking?
The Venables era in Oklahoma has not been without its hiccups. He took over ahead of the 2022 season after the departure of Lincoln Riley to USC. The team was ranked ninth in the preseason, and after opening 3-0, moved up to sixth. Still, three straight losses dropped them out of the Top 25, and they finished the year 6-7 with a bowl loss to Florida State.
The second campaign under Venables at Oklahoma went much better. They started the season ranked 20th and climbed all the way to sixth before ending the season 15th.
The team started 7-0 that year, including defeating Texas, which was ranked third. Still, back-to-back losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State on the road cost them a chance at a Big 12 title in their final season in the conference.
Hopes were high for the 2024 season for the Sooners in their first season in the SEC. They opened the season ranked 16th, and they started the year 3-0. Still, they lost four of their next five games, including a 31-point loss to Texas, to drop out of the rankings. For the second time in three seasons, the team finished 6-7. Now the question is, how will the team fare in 2025?
The quarterback question for Oklahoma football
John Mateer joined the Sooners as a redshirt junior after three years at Washington State. He started all 12 games in 2024, passing for 3,139 yards with 29 scored. He also ran the ball for 826 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Mateer has been seen as potentially one of the top quarterbacks in the SEC heading into this season. He is not only a solid passer but also can improvise in the backfield and make big plays. Still, two major questions persist.
The first is the ability of Venables to have quality quarterback play. They do have a new offensive coordinator in Ben Arbuckle, who comes in from Washington State, where Mateer is from.
Still, it has been a struggle as of late. Dillon Gabriel was solid with the team in 2022, throwing for 3,168 yards and started 2023 strong as well. Still, Jackson Arnold took over. Arnold struggled in 2024, leading to Michael Hawkins Jr. playing. Now, the hope is that Mateer will return the quarterback position to stability as they had under Gabriel.
That is possible if the quarterback is available. There are allegations of Mateer being involved in sports gambling due to evidence found on his Venmo account. According to NCAA rules, he could miss much, if not all, of the season if these allegations are found to be true. The NCAA has eased its penalties for this in recent years to 50 percent of the season, plus education.
A player could apply for reinstatement after completing the gambling education portion and the time served. If they fail to complete the education, the player will remain suspended. Still, Mateer did not directly place these bets, which could open a new level of litigation regarding the legality of the bets placed, if, in fact, Mateer was involved.
While speculative, this is now a cloud hanging over the Oklahoma program and its star quarterback. If he is not available, the program will suffer, and finding wins could be difficult.
Can Oklahoma football manage a tough schedule?
The Sooners' schedule does have some difficulties as well. The nonconference schedule should net at least three wins with games against Illinois State, at Temple, and Kent State.
Still, they also have to face Michigan. While at home, Michigan has a great defense, and it could be a struggle of a game for Oklahoma. If the team is without Mateer, they will struggle to find yards. Michigan will still be breaking in a new quarterback, so while a winnable game, it will be difficult.
After visiting Temple in week three, they face Auburn in week four, and then Kent State. Then, the most difficult part of the schedule comes to fruition.
In the next six weeks, they face five teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25 with three of them on the road and one neutral site. They will contend with Texas (neutral site), at South Carolina, Ole Miss, and at Tennessee before an open week and then on the road against Alabama.
All five of those teams have hopes to compete in the SEC this year. Furthermore, the team ends the season with a visit from No. 9 LSU. This gives Oklahoma seven games against currently ranked opponents, plus Auburn and Missouri at home.
Even if Oklahoma wins against four of the seven ranked opponents, this is still a nine-win team, and they are likely to drop more than just three.
Eight wins is not enough for the Sooners
Teams that have finished 8-5 after bowl season have been ranked three times in the final AP Poll in the last 10 years. None of them has had a final ranking higher than 18th. In 2024, 9-4 Alabama finished with a ranking of 18th in the final AP Poll.
In the last 10 final AP Polls, excluding the Covid year of 2020, the best 9-4 team in the nation finished with a ranking higher than 18th in just five of the 10 seasons.
Nine wins could require a bowl win from Venables and the Sooners, something that has not happened in the Venables era. The schedule at hand does suggest that if they reach nine wins, they could be in the Top 25 and higher than 18th with help from other teams.
Still, the playoffs have also changed the final rankings somewhat. Last year, in the first year of the 12-team playoffs, all 12 of the playoff teams were in the Top 14 of the final AP Poll. If Oklahoma does not make the college football playoffs, which seems like a long shot, 12 of the 17 spots ahead of Oklahoma are already gone.
This leaves five spots for Oklahoma to move up into. Considering the regular-season win total, at the time of writing, according to FanDuel, has the under of 7.5 wins favored, it seems unlikely they will get one of those spots.
With a difficult schedule and the possibility that Mateer could miss time, it is very unlikely that Oklahoma finishes the college football season ranked higher than 18th in the AP Poll.
