It is the 55th all-time meeting between two SEC rivals as Tennessee visits Florida in Week 13. Tennessee is aiming for an eighth win on the season, while Florida is hoping to break a three-game losing streak. As the two rivals hit the field, it is time to make bold predictions on the clash.
Tennessee comes into the game at 7-3 on the season. After opening up with two straight wins, they fell in overtime to Georgia. They would roll off three more wins, with close victories over Mississippi State and Arkansas, before falling to Alabama. After dismantling Kentucky, the Volunteers fell to Oklahoma. Last time out, Tennessee dominated New Mexico State 42-9. While the program does have three losses, it is to three teams who are contending for playoff spots.
Meanwhile, it has been a disaster of a season for Florida. They opened up with a win over Long Island before three straight losses. They would then defeat Texas before falling to Texas A&M. The Gators then beat Mississippi State by two, but let go of Billy Napier after the game. Since then, the Gators are 0-3, falling to Georgia, Kentucky, and Ole Miss.
Joey Aguilar is dominant
The Tennessee offense has been stellar this year. They are currently third in the nation in points per game while sitting ninth in yards per game. Further, the running attack is ranked 48th, while the passing game is ranked seventh in FBS.
Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar has been a major part of the success of the team. The quarterback has passed for 2,941 yards with 22 touchdowns. He has thrown ten interceptions, but has also run in three touchdowns. He is not coming off his best game of the season. Against New Mexico State, Aguilar completed 17 of 23 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for 34 yards and a score. Still, he threw two interceptions in the game, but Tennessee still won 42-9.
The Vols QB has been solid against high-level competition. He threw for 371 yards and four scores, plus another on the ground, against Georgia. He threw for 268 yards and found the end zone once against Alabama. Finally, he tossed in three touchdowns with 393 yards passing against Oklahoma.
Florida does not have nearly the same level of defense as those three teams. The Gators are currently 72nd in the nation in opponent points per game and 78th in opponent yards. Further, they are 93rd in the nation against the pass. Aguilar may throw an interception in the game, but will also amass over 300 yards passing and at least two touchdowns.
Tramell Jones Jr. sees the field again
While the Tennessee offense has been solid, the Florida offense has been bad. They are 126th in points per game and 106th in yards per game. The rush offense has struggled, sitting 110th in yards per game. Jadan Baugh has done everything he can, running for 808 yards and six scores as the primary back, but considering the second leading rusher is KD Daniels with 104 yards, the run game is not good.
It also does not help the passing game. The passing game is 81st in the nation and led by DJ Lagway. Lagway has passed for 1,980 yards with 12 touchdowns. He has also been intercepted 13 times, plus has been sacked 15 times. The quarterback has thrown six interceptions in his last four games. He threw three in the game with Kentucky, leading to Florida benching Lagway in favor of Tramell Jones Jr.
The Tennessee defense has not been great, but it is still solid. Moreover, they are 20th in the nation in sack rate and tenth in takeaways per game. This is going to lead to Lagway struggling to start and finding the bench again. Jones has passed for 191 yards with two touchdowns this year. He has shown some solid play and some mobility. With the Florida season suffering as much as it has, the coaching staff will decide to give Jones a try in the game.
Tennessee runs away with the game
The Tennessee offense torched the Kentucky defense when the two teams faced off in Lexington. They racked up 504 yards of offense in the game, while putting up 56 points. Tennessee also did not turn over the ball, while forcing three turnovers. Meanwhile, Florida could not move the ball against Kentucky. They had just 247 yards of total offense and turned over the ball four times in the game. The Gators scored just seven points.
This shows the gulf between these two teams. While Tennessee has not been at its best against lower levels of competition, such as Arkansas and Mississippi State, this is a slightly different situation, being a rivalry game.
Florida has dominated this series in recent history. Since 2005, Florida has won 17 of the 20 matchups. Still, Tennessee has won two of the last three years, including the 23-17 overtime victory last year. Tennessee has not won in Gainsville since 2003, and lost as the 11th-ranked team in 2023 in Gainsville 29-16. History starts turning in favor of the Vols in this one.
Odds at the time of writing, provided by FanDuel, have Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite. Neither team has been great against the spread this year. They have each covered just four times this year, but Florida has failed to cover by double digits in four of the seven games they did not cover. Meanwhile, Tennessee has covered by two scores in two of the four games they have covered, while also never failing to keep it within ten points of the spread.
Tennessee's offense is going to make covering a moot point; the question will just be the margin of victory. Florida is not going to be able to move the ball well while also continuing to turn over the ball. The Vols are going to turn those mistakes into points as they run away with this game.
