It is a major SEC clash in Week 13 as Missouri hits the road to face Oklahoma. Missouri is holding on to a top 25 spot in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, sitting 22nd. Meanwhile, Oklahoma jumped up the rankings to eighth after taking a victory over Alabama. As Oklahoma looks to continue its trek towards the playoffs, Missouri looks to pull the upset.
Missouri enters the game at 7-3 on the season. The Tigers started the year strong, opening up 5-0. Still, they would lose three of the next four games, falling to Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M, while escaping with a double overtime victory over Auburn on the road. They have had some close games in their losses. The loss to Alabama was by just three, while they fell to Vandy by just seven. Last time out, Missouri dominated Mississippi State 49-27.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma is 8-2 this year. They also started the year 5-0, including wins over Michigan and Auburn. Then, the Sooners lost two of the next three, falling to Texas and Ole Miss, but defeating South Carolina. Since then, they have had two massive wins on the road. First, it was a 33-27 win over Tennessee. Then, last weekend, it was a 23-21 victory over Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
This game was once a yearly rivalry until Missouri left for the SEC after the 2011 season. Oklahoma is 67-25-5 all-time against Missouri, but the Tigers did take the victory last season, 30-23 at home.
Oklahoma will slow down Ahmad Hardy
The Missouri offense has been solid this season. They are 26th in the nation in points per game, while sitting 22nd in yards per game. The pass offense has not been great, sitting 102nd in yards per game, but the Tigers have been dominant on the ground, sitting sixth in yards per game.
This is led by Ahmad Hardy. Hardy has been dominant this year. He has run 197 times for 1,346 yards and 15 touchdowns. He is averaging 6.8 yards per carry this year, including averaging over eight yards per carry each of the last two weeks. He currently leads the nation in rushing yards while sitting third in rushing touchdowns this year.
Last week was a historic showing for Hardy. He ran for 300 yards on 25 carries and three touchdowns. That was the second-most rushing yards by a player in a game in school history. It was also the seventh time he had hit the 100-yard marker, and the second time he was at 250 or more yards. Further, it was his third three-touchdown game of the year.
Oklahoma is going to slow down Hardy in this game. The Sooners are 11th in the nation in opponent yards per game and second against the run. They recently held another top back in the nation, Kewan Lacy, to 78 yards on 27 carries, well below his season average. The defense has allowed just one player to run for over 100 yards this year. That was Justice Haynes for Michigan, who ran for 125 yards on 19 carries. Still, 75 of those yards came on one run. Unless Hardy breaks a massive run in this game, Oklahoma will keep him under 100 yards.
The Missouri quarterback will struggle
There are questions to as who will be the who will be in at quarterback for Missouri. Eli Drinkwitz shared some hope that Beau Pribula could return for this game. Pribula had been solid before going down with the injury in the game against Vanderbilt. He had passed for 1,685 yards and 11 touchdowns. Still, he had thrown seven interceptions. Moreover, he was sacked 17 times. He still ran for 220 yards and five scores, and mobility is a part of his game.
The injury was a dislocated ankle, which will limit his mobility in this game. Missouri is currently 100th in the nation in quarterback sack rate. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is second in the nation in getting to the quarterback. R Mason Thomas has 6.5 sacks this year, while Taylor Wein has 4.5. If Pribula does get the start, he will be hounded all day, and the lack of mobility from an ankle injury will be a major issue for the Tigers.
If it is not Pribula at quarterback, it will be Matt Zollers, a true freshman. He will also struggle with the pressure, but his play will also be a hindrance in general. He has passed for just 402 yards this year, with four touchdowns and an interception. He has yet to pass for more than 140 yards in a game, and has been sacked five times so far this campaign. With his lackluster performances so far, and the fact that he is completing just 53 percent of his passes, Oklahoma has a strong enough secondary to focus most of the defensive unit's energy on the Missouri run game. That could spell disaster for the Tigers.
John Mateer continues to struggle
Oklahoma has been fairly pedestrian on offense this year. They are 62nd in the nation in points per game while sitting 91st in yards per game. The team is also 86th in the run and 86th in the pass. John Mateer started the season hot, leading to early Heisman buzz. He passed for over 250 yards with at least one touchdown pass and one touchdown run in each game.
He has not been the same since returning from injury. Mateer has thrown just two touchdowns since returning, while also having two rushing scores. He has also thrown four interceptions and been sacked 14 times. Meanwhile, Missouri has been great on defense this year. Missouri is 30th in the nation in opponent points per game and tenth in opponent yards per game. They have also been stellar against the pass.
The Tigers are 17th in opponent passing yards this year while sitting fifth in sack rate. Damon Wilson II has gotten to the QB seven times this year, while Zion Young has 5.5 sacks. They are going to cause pressure on Mateer in this game, as he does not return to early-season form.
Each team's strength is the defensive side of the ball. Odds at the time of writing, provided by FanDuel, have the over/under set at 42.5 points. The under has hit in eight of nine games for the Sooners, and has hit in all five games where the total was under 50 points. It has also hit in three of the last six games for Missouri, including when the total was at 43.5 against Auburn.
This will be a low-scoring game with a defensive focus. Oklahoma is going to come away with a tight victory, and there will be under 42.5 points.
