Every fantasy football season brings a new set of debates surrounding player values. Average Draft Position (ADP) often serves as a guide for drafters, but it can also create blind spots and inflated expectations. While quarterbacks remain one of the most consistent and predictable positions in fantasy, the temptation to chase name value or last year’s production can push certain passers higher than they deserve to go. This year is no different, as several quarterbacks are being drafted well above their true fantasy outlook.
Below, we’ll break down five quarterbacks whose 2025 ADP suggests they are overvalued and explain why fantasy managers should consider passing on them at their current draft cost.
1. Patrick Mahomes
It feels almost sacrilegious to label Patrick Mahomes “overvalued,” but in the fantasy football world, draft price matters more than talent. Mahomes is currently being selected as a top-six quarterback in most drafts, yet the past two seasons have shown a dip in his week-to-week ceiling compared to the early years of his career. The post-Tyreek Hill era has forced Mahomes into more methodical drives, and while he’s still elite in real-life football, his explosive 40-point fantasy weeks are less common.
The Chiefs have leaned more heavily on balanced offensive drives, red-zone efficiency from Isiah Pacheco, and controlling tempo rather than relying exclusively on Mahomes’ arm. He remains as reliable as they come in terms of consistency, but if you’re spending capital on him in the second or third round instead of finding a quarterback later, you may miss out on more impactful value elsewhere. Bottom line: Mahomes is overvalued at current ADP—not because he won’t deliver, but because his ceiling doesn’t separate him from the mid-tier options enough to justify draft cost.
2. Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield’s late-career resurgence has been one of the best stories in the NFL, and last year’s playoff push cemented his reputation as a gritty competitor. But fantasy managers may be chasing points from 2024 that won’t repeat this season. Sitting at the QB7 range in ADP, Mayfield is being drafted as a bona fide QB1 in fantasy leagues, a price that assumes he will continue to deliver weekly production on par with the top half of the position.
The risk? Mayfield’s efficiency metrics are volatile. His success in 2024 leaned heavily on elite contested-catch performances from Mike Evans and steady play in clutch situations. At age 30, he’s not bringing high rushing upside, which makes him extremely dependent on touchdown variance. If either Evans misses time, along with the time Chris Godwin will be gone, or if Tampa Bay pivots slightly more toward a balanced game script with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, Mayfield’s weekly outputs could look more like high-end QB2 numbers than top-7 production. He’s a strong real-life story, but in fantasy, drafters are paying for a ceiling that may already be behind him.
3. Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott is a name brand at this point, and fantasy managers continue to draft him as if he’s a guaranteed safe option. His ADP currently sits inside the top eight quarterbacks, but that ranking feels inflated when factoring in his inconsistent ceiling. Prescott remains capable of strong games when his offense is rolling, but Dallas’ run-first identity and evolving receiving corps limit his fantasy stability.
CeeDee Lamb is among the league’s elite wideouts, and they recently traded for George Pickens, but Prescott's inconsistent running game and mix-shift offensive line will put a lot of strain on him. That means he’s often forced into game scripts where his fantasy totals depend on Dallas falling behind early and his offensive line holding off a consistent pass rush. With the Cowboys’ defense among the league’s best, Dak often becomes more of a game manager in positive game scripts. He can deliver top-five weeks here and there, but week-to-week volume concerns paired with touchdown dependency make him a risky bet at his current price. He’s safer as a mid-tier QB2 than the QB1 fantasy managers are paying for.
4. Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray is always one of the hardest quarterbacks to assess because when he’s on the field and healthy, he provides a strong dual-threat profile. Fantasy managers love chasing his rushing floor, and he’s currently being selected near the QB9 range in drafts. The trouble is his health and inconsistency both as a passer and runner. Murray has had difficulty putting together long stretches of elite fantasy production over a full season, often missing games due to injury or struggling with rhythm after returning.
Even with Marvin Harrison Jr. added to the mix, expectations that Murray will transform into a stable weekly top-10 option feel aggressive. If you draft him at ADP, you’re building your team around an assumption that he’ll remain healthy and locked into elite usage for 17 games—a dangerous gamble given history. Quarterbacks with similar rushing upside such as Anthony Richardson or Jalen Hurts have more durable supporting casts and offensive structures. For Murray to justify current ADP, a career-best passing season is required, which doesn’t feel like the safest bet.
5. Jared Goff
Jared Goff continues to be a polarizing fantasy option. On one hand, he pilots one of the league’s most explosive offenses behind an elite offensive line, and a stacked supporting cast of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta. On the other hand, he lost playcaller for the last two seasons Ben Johnson and his lack of mobility and reliance on perfect conditions make him a risky starter in standard one-quarterback leagues.
Goff’s ADP as a mid-tier QB1 suggests the market is fully buying into Detroit’s offensive firepower, but history shows Goff is far more matchup-dependent than his ADP indicates. When game scripts favor the Lions running game or when Goff is taken out of his comfort zone on the road, his fantasy output plummets. He’s a fantastic best-ball asset and streamer in the right matchups, but he shouldn’t be locked in as a weekly starter. At his current draft cost, fantasy managers would be wiser to invest in higher-upside options with rushing ability rather than a pocket passer tied to situational production.
Quarterbacks carry immense name recognition, which often leads to inflated ADPs based on reputation rather than realistic fantasy outlooks. Mahomes, Mayfield, Prescott, Murray, and Goff all bring something positive to the table, but when you combine ADP with opportunity cost, these five are overvalued for 2025. The key takeaway for drafters is simple: don’t pay for past production or name value when you can find comparable or greater upside later.
