The fantasy football championships are now just one week away, leaving only four teams in the running ahead of NFL Week 16. Everybody has league-winning rosters at this point, allowing the entire fantasy football season to come down to setting lineups, with no position more variant than wide receiver.
Even the most consistent players are due for at least a few bad performances per year, and an untimely Week 16 dud could end a fantasy football season. Players like Ladd McConkey and Emeka Egbuka looked like league winners early on, but have frustrated managers with their recent slumps, making them difficult to trust at this point in the year.
Sometimes, a few of the league's biggest stars feel unplayable in the fantasy football playoffs. But at the same time, it can feel even more difficult to justify benching them. Every decision means much more in December, and making the wrong call can be the difference between taking home gold and pulling out hair on Sunday afternoon.
Before the NFL Week 16 matchups begin, take a close look at which players to start and which to sit based on our weekly fantasy football wide receiver rankings.
Honorable mention starts: Ladd McConkey (LAC at DAL), Ricky Pearsall (SF at IND), Jaylen Waddle (MIA vs. CIN), Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs. TB), Chris Olave (NO vs. NYJ)
Honorable mention sits: Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX at DEN), Terry McLaurin (WAS vs. PHI), Stefon Diggs (NE at BAL), Michael Wilson (ARI vs. ATL), Alec Pierce (IND vs. SF)
Start: Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Even with Joe Burrow back in the lineup, Ja'Marr Chase has been frustratingly inconsistent in 2025. Those who took him in the first round of fantasy football drafts back in August might be feeling some buyer's remorse, but Chase will be worth trusting in Week 16.
A matchup with the Miami Dolphins is concerning on paper, with the Dolphins being surprisingly effective at limiting wideouts. Anthony Weaver's defense allows the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. However, those numbers come with a grain of salt.
The Dolphins' defensive numbers have improved over the last two months, during which they have gone 5-2 as a team. Three of the last seven quarterbacks they have faced were backups, including two — Kirk Cousins and Brady Cook — who started their first game of the season.
This secondary, which is missing arguably its three best cornerbacks, will still be the worst passing defense Burrow has faced all year. There is not a single cornerback on Miami's active roster capable of even slowing Chase, and star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is now also in danger of missing the game.
Sit: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown might not necessarily be a sit candidate, but fantasy football managers certainly need to temper their expectations. St. Brown is arguably the best receiver in the league and has been matchup-proof all season, but he faces an underrated test in Week 16.
While it seemed like playing receivers against the Pittsburgh Steelers seemed like a sure lock for most of the year, their secondary has quietly tightened up over the last month. Quarterbacks still have success against them, but it tends to be through tight ends and running backs and not with receivers.
The Steelers have made several subtle changes that have reaped significant benefits down the stretch, most notably moving Jalen Ramsey from nickelback to safety. Since Week 10, when Ramsey's position change became official, only two receivers — Zay Flowers and Ladd McConkey — have gone over 70 receiving yards against Pittsburgh, with Flowers being the only one to catch more than five passes.
The Steelers have been elite against slot receivers in that same frame, allowing just 18.0 receiving yards per game to their opponent's top slot-aligning pass-catcher. St. Brown is coming off an absurd 18-target game and is a level above any player Pittsburgh has defended thus far, but there is still too much momentum to expect him to repeat his performance in Week 16.
Start: Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Few pass-catchers enter Week 16 hotter than Nico Collins, who is averaging 101.3 receiving yards per game over his last three. Collins is in an excellent position to repeat that success against the Las Vegas Raiders, who allow the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers.
The Raiders entered Week 15 in an even worse position without top cornerback Kyu Blu Kelly. Their shorthanded secondary could do nothing against the Philadelphia Eagles' run-first offense, allowing an 83 percent completion rate and multiple serviceable fantasy football performances, despite Jalen Hurts attempting just 18 passes.
The Raiders have allowed at least 10 fantasy points to six different pass-catchers in their last six games. Their zone-heavy defense perfectly sets up Collins, who has dominated similar schemes all year.
This is an easy smash spot for Collins, who should already be starting in all leagues and could finish as the overall WR1 of Week 16. Don't overthink it.
Sit: George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy football managers relying on George Pickens might already be out of the playoffs due to his inconsistency. Talent has never been his issue, but Pickens' attitude and work ethic are being questioned yet again as he has just eight catches for 70 receiving yards in his last two games.
Even if he returns to form in Week 16, the matchup will not be one that will be easy to rebound against. The Los Angeles Chargers have been a matchup to avoid all season, allowing the fewest fantasy points to receivers.
Only one wide receiver, A.J. Brown, has even topped 40 receiving yards against the Chargers since the start of November. Slot receivers have had slightly more success, suggesting Dak Prescott will be looking more toward CeeDee Lamb in Week 16 than Pickens.
The Chargers threw Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton around all game in Week 15, emphasizing their increased physicality against wideouts down the stretch. Pickens has no issue getting physical with cornerbacks, but he can very easily get taken off his game in those environments.
Start: Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Trusting Justin Jefferson never seemed like a difficult decision, yet here we are. The uber-talented wideout enters Week 16 with just 37 receiving yards in his last three games and having topped 50 yards in just one of his last seven outings. Jefferson has also gone without a touchdown since Week 9.
Everything was supposed to turn around against the Dallas Cowboys' pitiful defense in Week 15, but Jefferson was invisible yet again. J.J. McCarthy turned in his most impressive game as a professional, but he continues to struggle to connect with his star receiver.
With McCarthy now rolling, the Vikings get another golden opportunity to get Jefferson going. The Cowboys allow the most fantasy points to opposing receivers, but the New York Giants might be an even better matchup on paper.
The Giants are right behind the Cowboys, allowing 23.9 fantasy points per game to receivers, third-most in the league. Despite lacking an elite cornerback, New York deploys one of the most man-dominant defenses, giving Jefferson his most favorable matchup of the year.
Jefferson's Week 15 flop might have been the final straw for some, but his target share is still elite, and McCarthy has begun to find the mark. Trust Jettas in the biggest spot of the fantasy football season against arguably the worst passing defense in the NFL.
Sit: DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers
DK Metcalf is coming off a fine two-game stretch, but context matters. Had the Miami Dolphins' defense not forgotten how to tackle on Metcalf's awkward Week 16 touchdown, his three-catch game would leave him with just one relevant fantasy football performance in the last seven weeks.
Aside from his touchdown, Metcalf's Week 15 box score is concerning. He drew just three targets in a favorable matchup, his fewest of the season, while Aaron Rodgers continued to look toward tight ends Darnell Washington and Pat Freiermuth.
Metcalf now draws another favorable matchup on paper against the Detroit Lions, who allow the second-most fantasy points to receivers. However, Detroit has also been a top-10 defense in man coverage, against which Metcalf has struggled.
The 28-year-old has a healthy 21.2 percent target share on the year, but that number drops to 15.5 percent against man coverage, according to Pro Football Focus. Rodgers also has a slight 34 percent throw rate against man schemes, one of the lowest in the NFL.
The Lions' secondary is almost entirely depleted, giving Metcalf some level of intrigue. But aside from his Week 14 outburst against the Baltimore Ravens, Metcalf has busted against every other man-dominant defense he has faced this season.
