The Chicago Cubs made a surprising big splash move as the MLB Trade Deadline approaches, acquiring third baseman Isaac Paredes from the Tampa Bay Rays while giving up Christopher Morel along with prospects Ty Johnson and Hunter Bigge.
It was apparent that the Rays would hold a fire sale as of late, and that started with the Randy Arozarena trade with the Seattle Mariners. It continued with Zach Eflin being sent to the Baltimore Orioles, as well as Jason Adam being traded to the San Diego Padres. Paredes was arguably the biggest trade chip they have, as he has has elite production for multiple years and he is under team control for three more seasons after this one.
It was reported that Jed Hoyer and the Cubs would be making moves for 2025 and beyond, and this move is clearly within that vision due to the team control for Paredes. Chicago in all likelihood is not going to make the playoffs this season, but Paredes will now be a key bat for them in the upcoming years.
The Cubs could still sell off rental pieces like Cody Bellinger, or some of their relief pitchers to contending teams by Tuesday's 6 p.m. ET deadline. Tampa Bay still has other pieces like Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe and Pete Fairbanks who have been rumored trade pieces as well.
This will likely go down as one of the more significant deals of this MLB Trade Deadline, so let's grade the returns for both sides.
Cubs get Isaac Paredes
Over the past three seasons, Isaac Paredes has been one of, if not the most productive third baseman in baseball. Posting a 116 wRC+ (100 is league average) in 2022, followed by 137 in 2023 and 130 in 100 games so far this season, according to FanGraphs.
The raw production is a positive for Paredes, and so is his versatility, as he can play all over the infield. The concerns come with Paredes' advanced metrics, specifically with his hard-hit data. He ranks in the 29th percentile in xwOBA, fourth percentile in average exit velocity, fifth percentile for hard-hit rate, eighth percentile for bat speed, and 26th percentile for barrel rate, according to Baseball Savant. Simply put, he does not hit the ball hard.
Paredes has combated this by pulling a lot of fly balls, resulting in home runs. He has a 51.5% pull percentage this year and 50.1% for his career, according to Baseball Savant. He also has a 28.8% ground ball rate, which is low and helps him produce the way he does.
The concern comes when taking into account that Wrigley Field is a big ballpark, especially compared to Tropicana Field. Paredes currently has 16 home runs this season, and only 11 of those would be home runs if he had played every game at Wrigley. Paredes and the Cubs better hope the wind is blowing out a lot.
Morel is a flawed player, and Johnson and Bigge are not significant prospects, but there are valid questions regarding Paredes' production translating to a park with a big left field in Chicago. The Cubs did well to not give up too much of significance, and the 3.5 years of team control remaining fits their timeline, but they took significant risk in acquiring this type of hitter for their ballpark.
Grade: C+
Rays get Christopher Morel, Ty Johnson and Hunter Bigge
Christopher Morel seems like the exact type of player that could flourish with the Rays, a player with flaws that might be able to be maximized by a few tweaks. He is also under team control through 2028.
Morel's production has dipped this season, as he currently has a 93 wRC+, which is down from 119 in 2023 and 108 in 2022, according to FanGraphs. Needless to say, Morel is not a good defender either, as he has -5 DRS and -12 OAA this season. Barring a position change, it does not seem like he could be a good defensive player. Maybe the Rays will try him at second base or in the outfield.
Morel has displayed solid power, with 26 home runs in 2023 and 18 so far this season. He hits the ball hard as well and has 97th percentile bat speed, according to Baseball Savant. Maybe there is a tweak the Rays can make to his approach to maximize production.
Johnson is a pitcher in high-A, and Bigge is a Triple-A pitcher. Both likely lottery ticket type of prospects.
While Paredes had valid concerns, the Rays likely could have gotten better prospects from another team with less glaring flaws than the ones Morel has.
Grade: C
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